TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090998
Played Sep 8Finished
Rafael Turrini
Home
1.13
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412116117––––
Vincent Senkbeil
Away
5.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVincent Senkbeil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRafael Turrini above · Vincent Senkbeil below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 61 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Vincent Senkbeil at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Rafael Turrini 1–0 Vincent Senkbeil Vincent Senkbeil has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:38What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Turrini
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Turrini 2025 vs Senkbeil 1631
Turrini
Correct
both rated, 394 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Turrini 60% vs Senkbeil 80%
Senkbeil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Turrini 70% vs Senkbeil 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Turrini -1 · Senkbeil +3
Senkbeil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Turrini) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senkbeil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTurrini 1.13 / Senkbeil 5.50
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Turrini)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090998
Turrini1.13
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Senkbeil5.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTurrini1wins
AwaySenkbeil0wins
Turrini leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTurriniSenkbeilT − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match45.034.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTurriniSenkbeilBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 243 vs 16 / 2885.6%57.1%208 / 243 vs 16 / 28Avg sets wonper match2.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TurriniTurrini 1.13/Senkbeil 5.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83%
Turrini · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Turrini won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMar 5 · 13:00R. Turrini—111310113V. Senkbeil—9111221
R. Turrini10
LSep 8 · 09:45M. Henninger4.801111113R. Turrini1.154490LSep 8 · 06:30R. Turrini1.201211471K. Fadeev4.3314811113WSep 7 · 16:00R. Turrini1.041111113K. Waltl9.006470LSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760WSep 7 · 08:30M. Stefanidis6.258180R. Turrini1.081111113WSep 7 · 07:00R. Turrini1.321111143S. Almeida2.9554120LJul 22 · 20:55R. Turrini—5970E. Otalvaro—1111113WJul 21 · 20:35R. Turrini—11911123V. Thiofilo—9112101WJun 2 · 11:00R. Turrini1.281111113D. Rinderer3.509750
V. Senkbeil10
WSep 8 · 09:15K. Fadeev1.25117117122V. Senkbeil3.75911611143WSep 7 · 17:00M. Stefanidis—11211842V. Senkbeil—911711113WSep 7 · 15:30V. Senkbeil—116114113S. Almeida—61171162WSep 7 · 13:00V. Senkbeil1.0861211113C. Schmitt7.001110351LSep 7 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.361111113V. Senkbeil3.008490WSep 7 · 09:30K. Waltl4.331187121V. Senkbeil1.2041111143LSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891WMar 6 · 11:28O. Naplokov—4990V. Senkbeil—1111113WMar 6 · 09:00M. Hardikar3.757780V. Senkbeil1.251111113WMar 6 · 08:00V. Senkbeil1.611112123L. Kraus2.20710100
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