TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13097887
Played Sep 8Finished
Kirill Fadeev
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1197111167111214
Vincent Senkbeil
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:08 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKirill Fadeev above · Vincent Senkbeil below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 99 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 57.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Kirill Fadeev 1–0 Vincent Senkbeil Vincent Senkbeil has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Fadeev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fadeev 1763 vs Senkbeil 1627
Fadeev
Wrong
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fadeev 100% vs Senkbeil 60%
Fadeev
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fadeev 80% vs Senkbeil 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fadeev +5 · Senkbeil -1
Fadeev
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senkbeil form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFadeev 1.25 / Senkbeil 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Fadeev)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13097887
Fadeev1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Senkbeil3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFadeev1wins
AwaySenkbeil0wins
Fadeev leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFadeevSenkbeilF − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.021.0+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFadeevSenkbeilBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 151 vs 16 / 2967.6%55.2%102 / 151 vs 16 / 29Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.235.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevFadeev 1.25/Senkbeil 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Senkbeil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 7 · 11:30K. Fadeev—1111113V. Senkbeil—8490
K. Fadeev10
WSep 8 · 06:30R. Turrini1.201211471K. Fadeev4.3314811113WSep 7 · 16:30M. Henninger2.0061250K. Fadeev1.731114113WSep 7 · 15:00M. Stefanidis—761171K. Fadeev—11117113WSep 7 · 13:30K. Fadeev—15211113S. Almeida—1311481WSep 7 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.361111113V. Senkbeil3.008490WSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172
V. Senkbeil10
LSep 8 · 08:30R. Turrini1.131411113V. Senkbeil5.5012670WSep 7 · 17:00M. Stefanidis—11211842V. Senkbeil—911711113WSep 7 · 15:30V. Senkbeil—116114113S. Almeida—61171162WSep 7 · 13:00V. Senkbeil1.0861211113C. Schmitt7.001110351LSep 7 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.361111113V. Senkbeil3.008490WSep 7 · 09:30K. Waltl4.331187121V. Senkbeil1.2041111143LSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891WMar 6 · 11:28O. Naplokov—4990V. Senkbeil—1111113WMar 6 · 09:00M. Hardikar3.757780V. Senkbeil1.251111113WMar 6 · 08:00V. Senkbeil1.611112123L. Kraus2.20710100
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