TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13091181
Played Sep 8Finished
Rafael Turrini
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214118411711––
Kirill Fadeev
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:06 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeRafael Turrini to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRafael Turrini above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Rafael Turrini at 67.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Rafael Turrini 10–3 Kirill Fadeev Kirill Fadeev has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:06What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Turrini
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Turrini
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Turrini 2025 vs Fadeev 1763
Turrini
Wrong
both rated, 262 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Turrini 80% vs Fadeev 100%
Fadeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Turrini 80% vs Fadeev 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Turrini +1 · Fadeev +5
Fadeev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Turrini) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTurrini 1.20 / Fadeev 4.33
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Turrini)+1.6pp
Challenger Series TT · #13091181
Turrini1.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Fadeev4.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTurrini8wins
AwayFadeev2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTurrini leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTurrini100%4 of 4
AwayFadeev33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Turrini4Fadeev6n = 10Fadeev took 6 of 10
S2Turrini5Fadeev5n = 10split evenly
S3Turrini7Fadeev3n = 10Turrini took 7 of 10
S4Turrini5Fadeev1n = 6Turrini took 5 of 6
S5Turrini4Fadeev0n = 4Turrini took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTurriniFadeevT − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.331.3+7.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTurriniFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 243 vs 102 / 15185.6%67.6%208 / 243 vs 102 / 151Avg sets wonper match2.72.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TurriniTurrini 1.20/Fadeev 4.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.9%
Turrini · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:30R. Turrini—1211471K. Fadeev—14811113
WApr 6 · 10:30R. Turrini—1111113K. Fadeev—2490
LFeb 3 · 11:00R. Turrini—71270K. Fadeev—1114113
WFeb 2 · 09:30R. Turrini—571111113K. Fadeev—11119652
WDec 19 · 11:00R. Turrini—511611113K. Fadeev—11211652
WDec 18 · 13:30R. Turrini—671111113K. Fadeev—11113352
WDec 18 · 12:30R. Turrini—671111113K. Fadeev—11113352
WSep 15 · 07:30R. Turrini—1111113K. Fadeev—4680
WMay 13 · 08:45R. Turrini—11711113K. Fadeev—511671
WMay 12 · 15:00R. Turrini—1411113K. Fadeev—12970
R. Turrini10
WSep 7 · 16:00R. Turrini1.041111113K. Waltl9.006470LSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760WSep 7 · 08:30M. Stefanidis6.258180R. Turrini1.081111113WSep 7 · 07:00R. Turrini1.321111143S. Almeida2.9554120LJul 22 · 20:55R. Turrini—5970E. Otalvaro—1111113WJul 21 · 20:35R. Turrini—11911123V. Thiofilo—9112101WJun 2 · 11:00R. Turrini1.281111113D. Rinderer3.509750WJun 2 · 09:15R. Turrini1.171111123J. Shim4.5099100WJun 2 · 08:30R. Turrini1.501111113E. Mendes2.506870
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 16:30M. Henninger2.0061250K. Fadeev1.731114113WSep 7 · 15:00M. Stefanidis—761171K. Fadeev—11117113WSep 7 · 13:30K. Fadeev—15211113S. Almeida—1311481WSep 7 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.361111113V. Senkbeil3.008490WSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992
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