TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13097886
Played Sep 8Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
4.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114114119––––
Rafael Turrini
Away
1.15
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:08 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeRafael Turrini to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Rafael Turrini below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 50 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Rafael Turrini at 63.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 1–7 Rafael Turrini Marius Henninger has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.15 (81%)
Turrini
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Turrini
Wrong
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1676 vs Turrini 2029
Turrini
Wrong
both rated, 353 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 80% vs Turrini 60%
Henninger
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 80% vs Turrini 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger +1 · Turrini +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Turrini) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Turrini form (60%) is below what odds imply (87%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 4.80 / Turrini 1.15
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Turrini)+1.6pp
Challenger Series TT · #13097886
Henninger4.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Turrini1.15
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHenninger1wins
AwayTurrini7wins
2 of 8 to a deciderTurrini leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHenningern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTurrini100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Henninger2Turrini6n = 8Turrini took 6 of 8
S2Henninger2Turrini6n = 8Turrini took 6 of 8
S3Henninger1Turrini7n = 8Turrini took 7 of 8
S4Henninger2Turrini1n = 3Henninger took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away563%
These 8 meetings
MetricHenningerTurriniH − TBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match29.039.1−10.1per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerTurriniBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 103 vs 209 / 24454.4%85.7%56 / 103 vs 209 / 244Avg sets wonper match2.02.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TurriniHenninger 4.80/Turrini 1.15
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
82.3%
Turrini · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 7 · 12:30M. Henninger—121113113R. Turrini—1051541
LMay 4 · 17:00M. Henninger—21090R. Turrini—1112113
LMar 6 · 08:30M. Henninger—5720R. Turrini—1111113
LJan 26 · 15:30M. Henninger—14670R. Turrini—1611113
LDec 1 · 17:30M. Henninger—93121162R. Turrini—1111107113
LJun 17 · 09:15M. Henninger—11184762R. Turrini—9161111113
LJun 17 · 07:30M. Henninger—8550R. Turrini—1111113
LJan 27 · 11:30M. Henninger—8820R. Turrini—1111113
M. Henninger10
WSep 8 · 11:00V. Senkbeil2.00119581M. Henninger1.7371111113WSep 8 · 07:30M. Henninger1.061511113K. Waltl8.0013130LSep 7 · 16:30M. Henninger2.0061250K. Fadeev1.731114113WSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger1.0511116113C. Schmitt8.50751171WSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 10:30M. Stefanidis4.70119961M. Henninger1.1461111113WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113
R. Turrini10
LSep 8 · 10:39K. Fadeev3.401111126113R. Turrini1.30134101192WSep 8 · 08:30R. Turrini1.131411113V. Senkbeil5.5012670LSep 8 · 06:30R. Turrini1.201211471K. Fadeev4.3314811113WSep 7 · 16:00R. Turrini1.041111113K. Waltl9.006470LSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760WSep 7 · 08:30M. Stefanidis6.258180R. Turrini1.081111113WSep 7 · 07:00R. Turrini1.321111143S. Almeida2.9554120LJul 22 · 20:55R. Turrini—5970E. Otalvaro—1111113WJul 21 · 20:35R. Turrini—11911123V. Thiofilo—9112101
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