TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13105033
Played Sep 11Finished
Thomas Pellny
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11914129117111210
Kai Moosmann
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKai Moosmann to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingThomas Pellny above · Kai Moosmann below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 106 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Kai Moosmann at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Thomas Pellny 1–0 Kai Moosmann Kai Moosmann has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:49What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Pellny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pellny 1645 vs Moosmann 1236
Pellny
Correct
both rated, 410 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pellny 80% vs Moosmann 0%
Pellny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pellny 40% vs Moosmann 20%
Pellny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pellny +1 · Moosmann -5
Moosmann
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Pellny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moosmann form (0%) is below what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPellny 1.17 / Moosmann 4.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Pellny)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13105033
Pellny1.17
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
Moosmann4.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePellny1wins
AwayMoosmann0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPellny leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPellnyMoosmannP − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match53.053.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPellnyMoosmannBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 24 vs 10 / 5062.5%20%15 / 24 vs 10 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.11.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.430.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PellnyPellny 1.17/Moosmann 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Pellny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pellny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 11 · 06:30T. Pellny—111497123K. Moosmann—9121111102
T. Pellny10
WSep 10 · 16:00T. Pellny1.101111113S. Amann6.508960LSep 10 · 12:30T. Pellny1.142D. Zech5.003WSep 10 · 11:00T. Pellny1.331110118143M. Bott3.25512611122WSep 10 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.17150T. Pellny4.50171WSep 10 · 07:00T. Pellny1.66111111113M. Stefanidis2.05813841LJun 23 · 10:44M. Stefanidis1.751111113T. Pellny1.959660LJun 23 · 09:15M. Danzer1.57611812113T. Pellny2.25117111062LJun 23 · 08:00T. Pellny2.10681121K. Fadeev1.6711118113LJun 23 · 07:30T. Pellny1.95681121K. Fadeev1.7511118113LJun 22 · 16:10T. Pellny1.80131111772M. Stefanidis1.901191311113
K. Moosmann10
LSep 10 · 16:30D. Zech2.0011513113K. Moosmann1.737111161LSep 10 · 15:00D. Cheaib1.071111113K. Moosmann7.506470LSep 10 · 14:00K. Moosmann—610100M. Stefanidis—1112123LSep 10 · 11:30K. Moosmann6.5010770M. Henninger1.101211113LSep 10 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.10116881M. Bott1.6791111113WSep 10 · 08:00S. Amann2.751341181K. Moosmann1.4015118113WJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:30N. Kizakisz—71111113K. Moosmann—115491LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.52591111113K. Moosmann2.2711118582LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.20591111113K. Moosmann4.3311118582
Upcoming Matches
T. Pellny
K. Moosmann
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.