TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13105040
Played Sep 10Finished
Thomas Pellny
Home
1.14
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
––––––––––
Damian Zech
Away
5.00
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:55 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeThomas Pellny to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
H2H Thomas Pellny 1–0 Damian Zech Damian Zech has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Pellny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pellny 1670 vs Zech 1365
Pellny
Wrong
both rated, 305 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pellny 60% vs Zech 0%
Pellny
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pellny 50% vs Zech 10%
Pellny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pellny +3 · Zech -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Pellny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zech form (0%) is below what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPellny 1.14 / Zech 5.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Pellny)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13105040
Pellny1.14
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Zech5.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePellny1wins
AwayZech0wins
Pellny leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPellnyZechP − ZBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.022.0+13.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPellnyZechBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 21 vs 56 / 20961.9%26.8%13 / 21 vs 56 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.11.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.632.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PellnyPellny 1.14/Zech 5.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.4%
Pellny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zech won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WApr 16 · 14:30T. Pellny—1113113D. Zech—41170
T. Pellny10
WSep 10 · 11:00T. Pellny1.331110118143M. Bott3.25512611122WSep 10 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.17150T. Pellny4.50171WSep 10 · 07:00T. Pellny1.66111111113M. Stefanidis2.05813841LJun 23 · 10:44M. Stefanidis1.751111113T. Pellny1.959660LJun 23 · 09:15M. Danzer1.57611812113T. Pellny2.25117111062LJun 23 · 08:00T. Pellny2.10681121K. Fadeev1.6711118113LJun 23 · 07:30T. Pellny1.95681121K. Fadeev1.7511118113LJun 22 · 16:10T. Pellny1.80131111772M. Stefanidis1.901191311113WJun 22 · 14:00T. Pellny4.33511119113M. Danzer1.2011861182WJun 22 · 10:30T. Pellny1.731111117113M. Nogami2.0081371172
D. Zech10
LSep 10 · 10:30D. Cheaib1.0211711113D. Zech10.50711331LSep 10 · 09:40D. Zech—1M. Stefanidis—3LSep 10 · 07:30D. Zech7.003890M. Henninger1.081111113LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113WAug 20 · 07:30D. Zech1.5791111113A. Moreno2.25116791LAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113
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