TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13105035
Played Sep 10Finished
Damian Zech
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1175111311116––
Kai Moosmann
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeKai Moosmann to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Kai Moosmann below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Kai Moosmann at 55.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Damian Zech 1–0 Kai Moosmann Kai Moosmann has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moosmann
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zech 1402 vs Moosmann 1249
Zech
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 40% vs Moosmann 20%
Zech
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 20% vs Moosmann 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech +2 · Moosmann -4
Moosmann
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moosmann) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moosmann form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 2.00 / Moosmann 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moosmann)+0.3pp
Challenger Series TT · #13105035
Zech2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest38%takes the first set · 3 of 8
Moosmann1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeZech1wins
AwayMoosmann0wins
Zech leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricZechMoosmannZ − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match40.029.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechMoosmannBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 211 vs 10 / 4827%20.8%57 / 211 vs 10 / 48Avg sets wonper match1.41.1per matchAvg pointsper match32.529.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoosmannZech 2.00/Moosmann 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moosmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zech won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WNov 6 · 10:00D. Zech—11117113K. Moosmann—761151
D. Zech10
WSep 10 · 14:30D. Zech2.2511513113M. Bott1.579111181WSep 10 · 12:30T. Pellny1.142D. Zech5.003LSep 10 · 10:30D. Cheaib1.0211711113D. Zech10.50711331LSep 10 · 09:40D. Zech—1M. Stefanidis—3LSep 10 · 07:30D. Zech7.003890M. Henninger1.081111113LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113
K. Moosmann10
LSep 10 · 15:00D. Cheaib1.071111113K. Moosmann7.506470LSep 10 · 14:00K. Moosmann—610100M. Stefanidis—1112123LSep 10 · 11:30K. Moosmann6.5010770M. Henninger1.101211113LSep 10 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.10116881M. Bott1.6791111113WSep 10 · 08:00S. Amann2.751341181K. Moosmann1.4015118113WJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:30N. Kizakisz—71111113K. Moosmann—115491LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.52591111113K. Moosmann2.2711118582LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.20591111113K. Moosmann4.3311118582LJul 27 · 13:30K. Moosmann8.001311451K. Fadeev1.0615911113
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