TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13105038
Played Sep 10Finished
Damian Zech
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1195111311118––
Markus Bott
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMarkus Bott to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Markus Bott below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Markus Bott at 60.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Damian Zech 0–1 Markus Bott Damian Zech has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bott
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zech 1388 vs Bott 1377
Zech
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 20% vs Bott 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 20% vs Bott 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech +1 · Bott -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Bott) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bott form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 2.25 / Bott 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Bott)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13105038
Zech2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
25%takes the first set · 2 of 8
Bott1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeZech0wins
AwayBott1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderBott leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricZechBottZ − BBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match45.053.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechBottBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 210 vs 2 / 826.7%25%56 / 210 vs 2 / 8Avg sets wonper match1.31.3per matchAvg pointsper match32.432.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BottZech 2.25/Bott 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Bott · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zech won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 2 · 07:00D. Zech—11817542M. Bott—5111511113
D. Zech10
WSep 10 · 12:30T. Pellny1.142D. Zech5.003LSep 10 · 10:30D. Cheaib1.0211711113D. Zech10.50711331LSep 10 · 09:40D. Zech—1M. Stefanidis—3LSep 10 · 07:30D. Zech7.003890M. Henninger1.081111113LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113WAug 20 · 07:30D. Zech1.5791111113A. Moreno2.25116791
M. Bott10
LSep 10 · 13:00M. Henninger1.131111113M. Bott5.509230LSep 10 · 11:00T. Pellny1.331110118143M. Bott3.25512611122WSep 10 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.10116881M. Bott1.6791111113LSep 10 · 06:30D. Cheaib1.0711811113M. Bott7.50811671LOct 3 · 08:00M. Hollo1.201211113M. Bott4.3310980LOct 3 · 07:00M. Bott3.5011121191M. Scharrer1.2813149113WOct 2 · 15:30G. Patil1.83391181M. Bott1.8311117113LOct 2 · 13:30C. Chang1.5011511113M. Bott2.50911991LOct 2 · 12:00M. Abedinian1.3011911113M. Bott3.40911661LOct 2 · 09:00K. Zeimys1.3011411113M. Bott3.40811561
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