TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099206
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Koral
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811115119––
Roman Guliak
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:06 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Koral to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Koral above · Roman Guliak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Koral at 63.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Michal Koral 7–2 Roman Guliak Roman Guliak has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:06What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Koral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Koral
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koral 1446 vs Guliak 1488
Guliak
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koral 20% vs Guliak 0%
Koral
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koral 30% vs Guliak 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koral -1 · Guliak -5
Guliak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Koral) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guliak form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoral 1.44 / Guliak 2.63
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Guliak)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099206
Koral1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 38 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it70% 32 of 46
Guliak2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 84 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back24% 29 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKoral7wins
AwayGuliak2wins
4 of 9 to a deciderKoral leads 7–2, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoral71.4%5 of 7
AwayGuliakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koral7Guliak2n = 9Koral took 7 of 9
S2Koral5Guliak4n = 9Koral took 5 of 9
S3Koral6Guliak3n = 9Koral took 6 of 9
S4Koral5Guliak1n = 6Koral took 5 of 6
S5Koral2Guliak2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKoralGuliakK − GBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match41.933.1+8.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoralGuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 207 vs 344 / 68850.7%50%105 / 207 vs 344 / 688Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralKoral 1.44/Guliak 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Koral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WMay 11 · 16:30M. Koral—1111113R. Guliak—4330
WApr 26 · 20:30M. Koral—11118113R. Guliak—991121
WApr 19 · 10:30M. Koral—1115711113R. Guliak—51711752
WApr 18 · 17:31M. Koral—1111113R. Guliak—5490
WApr 18 · 14:30M. Koral—971111113R. Guliak—11119572
WApr 18 · 11:00M. Koral—1111113R. Guliak—9750
LApr 13 · 19:00M. Koral—11811792R. Guliak—811811113
LApr 2 · 21:00M. Koral—115111182R. Guliak—911134113
WApr 2 · 19:30M. Koral—81111113R. Guliak—116971
M. Koral10
LSep 9 · 19:00M. Koral2.00711791M. Blejchar1.7311611113WSep 9 · 18:00R. Adam1.837840M. Koral1.831111113LSep 8 · 17:00I. Taichman1.421113811113M. Koral2.6051511982LSep 8 · 16:00P. Hanel1.83821211133M. Koral1.831111109112LSep 8 · 15:00M. Blejchar2.0011119113M. Koral1.73561181LSep 8 · 14:30M. Koral1.731168121I. Taichman2.0091111143WSep 2 · 13:24V. Bosak3.4091191192M. Koral1.30116119113LSep 2 · 12:30V. Bosak1.80811913113M. Koral1.91112111162LSep 2 · 11:30M. Koral1.5081080R. Adam2.501112113WSep 2 · 10:30P. Osvald2.6321112882M. Koral1.441191011113
R. Guliak10
LSep 9 · 19:30R. Guliak2.3811123952R. Adam1.539101111113LSep 9 · 18:30M. Blejchar1.441111109113R. Guliak2.6339121182LSep 7 · 16:58P. Hanel1.441111113R. Guliak2.636880LSep 7 · 16:00V. Cerny1.67911911113R. Guliak2.1011911992LSep 7 · 15:00P. Hanel1.571211113R. Guliak2.2510670LSep 7 · 14:30R. Guliak2.20671151M. Blejchar1.6111118113WSep 5 · 21:30V. Cerny1.4811760R. Guliak2.451311113WSep 5 · 20:30R. Guliak1.919111011113F. Zurek1.8011812862WSep 5 · 19:00R. Guliak2.38139114113M. Blejchar1.53111191162LSep 5 · 18:00V. Cerny1.53119114113R. Guliak2.3881181142
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