TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13084617
Played Sep 5Finished
Vojtech Cerny
Home
1.48
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113711611––––
Roman Guliak
Away
2.45
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeVojtech Cerny to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVojtech Cerny above · Roman Guliak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 59 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Vojtech Cerny at 54.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Cerny 3–1 Roman Guliak Roman Guliak has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (62%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1556 vs Guliak 1565
Guliak
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 80% vs Guliak 60%
Cerny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 80% vs Guliak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +4 · Guliak +2
Cerny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guliak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.48 / Guliak 2.45
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Cerny)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13084617
Cerny1.48
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 24 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 19 of 30
Guliak2.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 82 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCerny3wins
AwayGuliak1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderCerny leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny75%3 of 4
AwayGuliakn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny4Guliak0n = 4Cerny took 4 of 4
S2Cerny1Guliak3n = 4Guliak took 3 of 4
S3Cerny3Guliak1n = 4Cerny took 3 of 4
S4Cerny2Guliak1n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricCernyGuliakC − GBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match41.837.8+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyGuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 93 vs 346 / 68747.3%50.4%44 / 93 vs 346 / 687Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.48/Guliak 2.45
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.3%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Guliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 5 · 18:00V. Cerny—119114113R. Guliak—81181142
WAug 14 · 20:59V. Cerny—1116113R. Guliak—91470
LAug 14 · 19:30V. Cerny—11651192R. Guliak—511117113
WFeb 28 · 21:30V. Cerny—11811113R. Guliak—911861
V. Cerny10
WSep 5 · 20:00V. Cerny1.6713711143M. Blejchar2.1011117121WSep 5 · 19:30F. Zurek2.751111941V. Cerny1.4013711113WSep 5 · 18:00V. Cerny1.53119114113R. Guliak2.3881181142WSep 3 · 09:03V. Cerny1.531011119113V. Bosak2.3812451192LSep 3 · 08:30F. Zurek3.75911711113V. Cerny1.2511711962WSep 3 · 07:30V. Cerny1.831110115113M. Blejchar1.8361271192WSep 3 · 06:30V. Bosak1.7311891152V. Cerny2.00711116113WAug 28 · 17:29D. Mikula1.836850V. Cerny1.831111113WAug 28 · 16:00D. Mikula1.91918481V. Cerny1.80111611113LAug 28 · 15:00T. Kraninger2.001111143V. Cerny1.7389120
R. Guliak10
WSep 5 · 20:30R. Guliak1.919111011113F. Zurek1.8011812862WSep 5 · 19:00R. Guliak2.38139114113M. Blejchar1.53111191162LSep 5 · 18:00V. Cerny1.53119114113R. Guliak2.3881181142WSep 5 · 17:32J. Hrabec1.55861141R. Guliak2.2511112113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Blejchar1.611111113R. Guliak2.203190WSep 5 · 15:30R. Guliak2.7511611113J. Hrabec1.40911771WSep 5 · 14:30P. Osvald1.53101191172R. Guliak2.38127119113LAug 22 · 21:29R. Guliak2.10971171V. Bosak1.6711113113WAug 22 · 20:30R. Guliak1.5011811113T. Kraninger2.50711681WAug 22 · 19:00R. Guliak2.751111113V. Bosak1.408660
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