TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092968
Played Sep 8Finished
Pavel Varecha
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111161210––––
Milan Jasek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:41 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timePavel Varecha to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Milan Jasek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 63 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Pavel Varecha at 57.1%
63 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 3–2 Milan Jasek Milan Jasek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Varecha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1418 vs Jasek 1378
Varecha
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 40% vs Jasek 20%
Varecha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 60% vs Jasek 30%
Varecha
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha -1 · Jasek -3
Jasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Varecha) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 1.73 / Jasek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Varecha)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092968
Varecha1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 43 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it75% 30 of 40
Jasek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 22 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVarecha3wins
AwayJasek2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderVarecha leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecha66.7%2 of 3
AwayJasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha3Jasek2n = 5Varecha took 3 of 5
S2Varecha3Jasek2n = 5Varecha took 3 of 5
S3Varecha3Jasek2n = 5Varecha took 3 of 5
S4Varecha1Jasek2n = 3Jasek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricVarechaJasekV − JBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.434.8+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaJasekBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 220 vs 119 / 24550.9%48.6%112 / 220 vs 119 / 245Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarechaVarecha 1.73/Jasek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Varecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 27 · 21:28P. Varecha—11115113M. Jasek—681181
LJul 27 · 20:30P. Varecha—111011992M. Jasek—412611113
WJul 21 · 19:00P. Varecha—611119113M. Jasek—11381192
WSep 12 · 06:00P. Varecha—1111123M. Jasek—64100
LSep 10 · 08:30P. Varecha—42110M. Jasek—1111133
P. Varecha10
LSep 8 · 21:28M. Blejchar1.331311113P. Varecha3.2511350LSep 8 · 19:00P. Varecha2.634460M. Blejchar1.441111113WSep 8 · 18:00V. Bosak1.6111711382P. Varecha2.20711711113LSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113WSep 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.73111011113E. Sionkala2.00512781LSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752WSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.251111123A. Virag3.7587100WSep 1 · 09:29P. Varecha2.1011711113F. Zurek1.67511681LSep 1 · 08:30J. Stach1.7391111113P. Varecha2.00114471WSep 1 · 07:30P. Varecha1.611111113D. Mikula2.206770
M. Jasek10
LSep 8 · 20:58V. Bosak2.101111113M. Jasek1.673970LSep 8 · 19:30M. Jasek1.44119147152V. Bosak2.639111211173LSep 8 · 18:30M. Blejchar1.441111113M. Jasek2.635850LSep 5 · 20:58M. Jasek1.73881112112J. Stach2.001111810133WSep 5 · 20:30M. Jasek1.911115113J. Stach1.8061370LSep 5 · 19:00M. Jasek2.2061141182T. Kraninger1.61117113113LSep 5 · 18:00I. Taichman1.611111911113M. Jasek2.2091311882WAug 24 · 20:58M. Jasek1.9191111113Z. Zientek1.80119651LAug 24 · 20:30M. Jasek1.67911971Z. Zientek2.1011911113WAug 24 · 19:00M. Jasek1.531111113D. Mikula2.388730
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