TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077840
Played Sep 5Finished
Milan Jasek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161513117––––
Jiri Stach
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Stach to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Jasek above · Jiri Stach below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 63 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Jiri Stach at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Milan Jasek 2–4 Jiri Stach Milan Jasek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:47What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stach
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Stach
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jasek 1390 vs Stach 1388
Jasek
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jasek 40% vs Stach 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jasek 40% vs Stach 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jasek -2 · Stach -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stach)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stach form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJasek 1.91 / Stach 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stach)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077840
Jasek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 21 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Stach1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 35 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeJasek2wins
AwayStach4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderStach leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStach100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jasek2Stach4n = 6Stach took 4 of 6
S2Jasek1Stach5n = 6Stach took 5 of 6
S3Jasek2Stach4n = 6Stach took 4 of 6
S4Jasek3Stach0n = 3Jasek took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away350%
These 6 meetings
MetricJasekStachJ − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.739.7−3.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJasekStachBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 245 vs 143 / 30949%46.3%120 / 245 vs 143 / 309Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StachJasek 1.91/Stach 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 23 · 12:30M. Jasek—111110113J. Stach—861291
LJun 25 · 19:30M. Jasek—913121162J. Stach—1115108113
LJun 10 · 19:30M. Jasek—6970J. Stach—1111113
LJun 8 · 20:30M. Jasek—31590J. Stach—1117113
LMay 1 · 07:00M. Jasek—710110J. Stach—1112133
WOct 28 · 11:30M. Jasek—11917123J. Stach—41115101
M. Jasek10
LSep 5 · 20:58M. Jasek1.73881112112J. Stach2.001111810133LSep 5 · 19:00M. Jasek2.2061141182T. Kraninger1.61117113113LSep 5 · 18:00I. Taichman1.611111911113M. Jasek2.2091311882WAug 24 · 20:58M. Jasek1.9191111113Z. Zientek1.80119651LAug 24 · 20:30M. Jasek1.67911971Z. Zientek2.1011911113WAug 24 · 19:00M. Jasek1.531111113D. Mikula2.388730LAug 24 · 18:00F. Zurek1.7381114113M. Jasek2.001191261LAug 23 · 13:28M. Jasek1.8378110V. Cerny1.831111133WAug 23 · 12:30J. Stach1.53861291M. Jasek2.38111110113WAug 23 · 11:30M. Jasek1.621111113D. Mikula2.037750
J. Stach10
WSep 5 · 20:58M. Jasek1.73881112112J. Stach2.001111810133LSep 5 · 19:30J. Stach2.5087110I. Taichman1.501111133LSep 5 · 18:30T. Kraninger1.801011811113J. Stach1.9112711872WSep 1 · 08:58D. Mikula2.203840J. Stach1.611111113WSep 1 · 08:30J. Stach1.7391111113P. Varecha2.00114471LSep 1 · 07:00J. Stach1.619650F. Zurek2.201111113LSep 1 · 06:00D. Mikula2.63111110113J. Stach1.44581221LAug 25 · 13:30V. Cerny1.40121177113J. Stach2.75106111152LAug 25 · 12:30F. Zurek2.38116119113J. Stach1.5351161192LAug 23 · 12:30J. Stach1.53861291M. Jasek2.38111110113
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