TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12476209
Played Aug 23Finished
Jiri Stach
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8116111210911––
Milan Jasek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 65.8% is still 65.8%
Graded at full timeJiri Stach to win
65.8%
65.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Stach above · Milan Jasek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jiri Stach at 65.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Stach 4–2 Milan Jasek Milan Jasek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Stach
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Stach
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stach 1461 vs Jasek 1436
Stach
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stach 40% vs Jasek 80%
Jasek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stach 40% vs Jasek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stach -1 · Jasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Stach)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStach 1.53 / Jasek 2.38
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Stach)+5.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12476209
Stach1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 34 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Jasek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 20 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStach4wins
AwayJasek2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderStach leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStach100%4 of 4
AwayJasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stach4Jasek2n = 6Stach took 4 of 6
S2Stach5Jasek1n = 6Stach took 5 of 6
S3Stach4Jasek2n = 6Stach took 4 of 6
S4Stach0Jasek3n = 3Jasek took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricStachJasekS − JBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match39.736.7+3.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStachJasekBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 307 vs 125 / 24747.6%50.6%146 / 307 vs 125 / 247Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StachStach 1.53/Jasek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.8%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 23 · 12:30J. Stach—861291M. Jasek—111110113
WJun 25 · 19:30J. Stach—1115108113M. Jasek—913121162
WJun 10 · 19:30J. Stach—1111113M. Jasek—6970
WJun 8 · 20:30J. Stach—1117113M. Jasek—31590
WMay 1 · 07:00J. Stach—1112133M. Jasek—710110
LOct 28 · 11:30J. Stach—41115101M. Jasek—11917123
J. Stach10
WSep 5 · 20:58M. Jasek1.73881112112J. Stach2.001111810133LSep 5 · 20:30M. Jasek1.911115113J. Stach1.8061370LSep 5 · 19:30J. Stach2.5087110I. Taichman1.501111133LSep 5 · 18:30T. Kraninger1.801011811113J. Stach1.9112711872WSep 1 · 08:58D. Mikula2.203840J. Stach1.611111113WSep 1 · 08:30J. Stach1.7391111113P. Varecha2.00114471LSep 1 · 07:00J. Stach1.619650F. Zurek2.201111113LSep 1 · 06:00D. Mikula2.63111110113J. Stach1.44581221LAug 25 · 13:30V. Cerny1.40121177113J. Stach2.75106111152LAug 25 · 12:30F. Zurek2.38116119113J. Stach1.5351161192
M. Jasek10
LSep 5 · 20:58M. Jasek1.73881112112J. Stach2.001111810133WSep 5 · 20:30M. Jasek1.911115113J. Stach1.8061370LSep 5 · 19:00M. Jasek2.2061141182T. Kraninger1.61117113113LSep 5 · 18:00I. Taichman1.611111911113M. Jasek2.2091311882WAug 24 · 20:58M. Jasek1.9191111113Z. Zientek1.80119651LAug 24 · 20:30M. Jasek1.67911971Z. Zientek2.1011911113WAug 24 · 19:00M. Jasek1.531111113D. Mikula2.388730LAug 24 · 18:00F. Zurek1.7381114113M. Jasek2.001191261LAug 23 · 13:28M. Jasek1.8378110V. Cerny1.831111133WAug 23 · 11:30M. Jasek1.621111113D. Mikula2.037750
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