TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091685
Played Sep 8Finished
Vitezslav Bosak
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117711117311811
Pavel Varecha
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timePavel Varecha to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitezslav Bosak above · Pavel Varecha below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Varecha at 57.4%
87 points played in total.
H2H Vitezslav Bosak 4–2 Pavel Varecha Pavel Varecha has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:47What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Bosak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Bosak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bosak 1325 vs Varecha 1419
Varecha
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bosak 0% vs Varecha 60%
Varecha
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bosak 10% vs Varecha 50%
Varecha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bosak -5 · Varecha -1
Bosak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Bosak) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecha form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBosak 1.61 / Varecha 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Bosak)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091685
Bosak1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 79 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it87% 40 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it79% 59 of 75
Varecha2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 29 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back27% 8 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBosak4wins
AwayVarecha2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderBosak leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBosak50%2 of 4
AwayVarechan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bosak4Varecha2n = 6Bosak took 4 of 6
S2Bosak3Varecha3n = 6split evenly
S3Bosak4Varecha2n = 6Bosak took 4 of 6
S4Bosak4Varecha1n = 5Bosak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBosakVarechaB − VBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match39.333.0+6.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBosakVarechaBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 357 vs 111 / 21849%50.9%175 / 357 vs 111 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BosakBosak 1.61/Varecha 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Bosak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 29 · 16:59V. Bosak—51111113P. Varecha—115461
LAug 29 · 15:30V. Bosak—11991362P. Varecha—3111111113
LJul 27 · 19:30V. Bosak—1179111P. Varecha—71111133
WApr 27 · 13:00V. Bosak—1111113P. Varecha—9740
WApr 27 · 11:00V. Bosak—81111113P. Varecha—119951
WApr 11 · 07:00V. Bosak—11511113P. Varecha—711741
V. Bosak10
LSep 6 · 17:03P. Hanel1.1711811113V. Bosak4.50411651LSep 6 · 16:30P. Hanel1.531111113V. Bosak2.387990LSep 6 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5051080R. Adam1.281112113LSep 6 · 14:30M. Blejchar1.4411119113V. Bosak2.63351181LSep 3 · 09:03V. Cerny1.531011119113V. Bosak2.3812451192LSep 3 · 08:00M. Blejchar1.501111113V. Bosak2.508970LSep 3 · 07:00F. Zurek2.38111110113V. Bosak1.53491241LSep 3 · 06:30V. Bosak1.7311891152V. Cerny2.00711116113LSep 2 · 13:24V. Bosak3.4091191192M. Koral1.30116119113WSep 2 · 12:30V. Bosak1.80811913113M. Koral1.91112111162
P. Varecha10
LSep 8 · 19:00P. Varecha2.634460M. Blejchar1.441111113LSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113WSep 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.73111011113E. Sionkala2.00512781LSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752WSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.251111123A. Virag3.7587100WSep 1 · 09:29P. Varecha2.1011711113F. Zurek1.67511681LSep 1 · 08:30J. Stach1.7391111113P. Varecha2.00114471WSep 1 · 07:30P. Varecha1.611111113D. Mikula2.206770WSep 1 · 06:30F. Zurek1.449480P. Varecha2.631111113LAug 29 · 16:59P. Varecha1.36115461V. Bosak3.0051111113
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