TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13081168
Played Sep 5Finished
Rafal Adach
Home
2.55
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118117119––
Jakub Jesiek
Away
1.45
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:39 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Jesiek to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
711118117119––
H2H Rafal Adach 2–6 Jakub Jesiek Rafal Adach has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 05:39What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Jesiek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Jesiek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adach 1152 vs Jesiek 1352
Jesiek
Wrong
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adach 20% vs Jesiek 40%
Jesiek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adach 20% vs Jesiek 50%
Jesiek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adach -4 · Jesiek -2
Adach
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Jesiek) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jesiek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdach 2.55 / Jesiek 1.45
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Jesiek)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13081168
Adach2.55
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 85 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back17% 24 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 85
Jesiek1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 95 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it76% 70 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeAdach2wins
AwayJesiek6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderJesiek leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdachn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJesiek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adach2Jesiek6n = 8Jesiek took 6 of 8
S2Adach2Jesiek6n = 8Jesiek took 6 of 8
S3Adach4Jesiek4n = 8split evenly
S4Adach2Jesiek3n = 5Jesiek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricAdachJesiekA − JBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match29.538.5−9.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdachJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 560 vs 267 / 50740.9%52.7%229 / 560 vs 267 / 507Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JesiekAdach 2.55/Jesiek 1.45
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.1%
Jesiek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJul 26 · 03:10R. Adach—81112272J. Jesiek—1191011113
LJun 6 · 01:55R. Adach—9980J. Jesiek—1111113
WJun 5 · 19:55R. Adach—11715123J. Jesiek—71113101
WApr 26 · 02:20R. Adach—61111133J. Jesiek—1167111
LApr 19 · 21:35R. Adach—10860J. Jesiek—1211113
LApr 19 · 15:35R. Adach—731151J. Jesiek—11117113
LNov 2 · 02:30R. Adach—113431J. Jesiek—71111113
LNov 1 · 20:30R. Adach—3640J. Jesiek—1111113
R. Adach10
LSep 6 · 20:45R. Adach1.83114841W. Jozala1.8671111113LSep 6 · 19:10R. Adach3.00441181K. Juszczyk1.3211116113WSep 6 · 18:00R. Adach1.5411101011133R. Ogon2.25612123112LSep 6 · 16:25R. Adach1.85131111792G. Sawicki1.851113611113LSep 6 · 15:10R. Adach2.7076100S. Krupa1.391111123WSep 6 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.8571270R. Adach1.801114113WSep 6 · 03:55R. Adach3.3518118113P. Polok1.271661181WSep 6 · 02:45R. Wiza1.858119101R. Adach1.8511811123WSep 6 · 01:30A. Szurgot2.604880R. Adach1.421111113LSep 5 · 23:55R. Szymik1.231110118113R. Adach3.6581271162
J. Jesiek10
WSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113LSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882LSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581WSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123LSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113LSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670WSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113LSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281WSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak1.36117131192J. Jesiek3.00811155113
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