TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077212
Played Sep 5Finished
Szymon Kolasa
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115311118611119
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:00 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeSzymon Kolasa to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Kolasa above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 86 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Szymon Kolasa at 56.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Kolasa 12–13 Maciej Nowalinski Szymon Kolasa has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:00What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolasa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolasa 1889 vs Nowalinski 1727
Kolasa
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolasa 20% vs Nowalinski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolasa 50% vs Nowalinski 30%
Kolasa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolasa +1 · Nowalinski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kolasa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolasa 1.73 / Nowalinski 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Kolasa)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13077212
Kolasa1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite74% won 69 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it91% 53 of 58
Nowalinski2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog37% won 132 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back18% 38 of 207
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolasa8wins
AwayNowalinski2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolasa leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolasa85.7%6 of 7
AwayNowalinski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolasa7Nowalinski3n = 10Kolasa took 7 of 10
S2Kolasa4Nowalinski6n = 10Nowalinski took 6 of 10
S3Kolasa7Nowalinski3n = 10Kolasa took 7 of 10
S4Kolasa8Nowalinski2n = 10Kolasa took 8 of 10
S5Kolasa2Nowalinski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolasaNowalinskiK − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.038.3+4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolasaNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 527 vs 833 / 173454.8%48%289 / 527 vs 833 / 1734Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolasaKolasa 1.73/Nowalinski 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Kolasa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolasa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa—11811113M. Nowalinski—811761
LSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa—101151182M. Nowalinski—126118113
LSep 5 · 09:40S. Kolasa—11491172M. Nowalinski—911116113
WSep 5 · 07:20S. Kolasa—113116113M. Nowalinski—51181192
WJul 15 · 13:50S. Kolasa—111111113M. Nowalinski—138881
WMar 28 · 12:35S. Kolasa—117119113M. Nowalinski—91191152
WMar 28 · 08:15S. Kolasa—111011113M. Nowalinski—612571
WJan 25 · 12:35S. Kolasa—11811113M. Nowalinski—911671
WJan 25 · 09:25S. Kolasa—81111113M. Nowalinski—114481
WOct 24 · 15:10S. Kolasa—13126113M. Nowalinski—11101171
S. Kolasa10
LSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113LSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621WSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162WSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113LSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
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