TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077173
Played Sep 5Finished
Szymon Sporek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116118811119––
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMaciej Nowalinski to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Maciej Nowalinski at 54.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 14–17 Maciej Nowalinski Szymon Sporek has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nowalinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-17 in 31
Nowalinski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1722 vs Nowalinski 1756
Nowalinski
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 60% vs Nowalinski 20%
Sporek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 50% vs Nowalinski 30%
Sporek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek -2 · Nowalinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nowalinski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 1.91 / Nowalinski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nowalinski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13077173
Sporek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Nowalinski1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 190 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it100% 63 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it84% 136 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek6wins
AwayNowalinski4wins
8 of 10 to a deciderSporek leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporek83.3%5 of 6
AwayNowalinski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek6Nowalinski4n = 10Sporek took 6 of 10
S2Sporek5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Sporek5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S4Sporek4Nowalinski6n = 10Nowalinski took 6 of 10
S5Sporek5Nowalinski3n = 8Sporek took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekNowalinskiS − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match46.644.5+2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 818 vs 837 / 173850%48.2%409 / 818 vs 837 / 1738Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiSporek 1.91/Nowalinski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sporek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 21 · 09:40S. Sporek—511591M. Nowalinski—11811113
WJul 20 · 09:40S. Sporek—111149113M. Nowalinski—78111172
WJul 20 · 07:20S. Sporek—116118113M. Nowalinski—91151182
WJul 15 · 10:05S. Sporek—1110119113M. Nowalinski—61271162
LMay 28 · 07:15S. Sporek—11911882M. Nowalinski—811811113
WMay 20 · 14:25S. Sporek—117117113M. Nowalinski—81161162
WMay 3 · 21:10S. Sporek—118911113M. Nowalinski—51111872
LApr 26 · 16:45S. Sporek—911201172M. Nowalinski—116226113
WApr 25 · 21:10S. Sporek—81211113M. Nowalinski—1110761
LApr 2 · 12:00S. Sporek—611111272M. Nowalinski—1161310113
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
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