TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077163
Played Sep 5Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911114119611117
Szymon Kolasa
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeSzymon Kolasa to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Szymon Kolasa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 90 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Szymon Kolasa at 56.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 11–11 Szymon Kolasa Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolasa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1742 vs Kolasa 1898
Kolasa
Wrong
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 20% vs Kolasa 60%
Kolasa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 30% vs Kolasa 60%
Kolasa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski -2 · Kolasa +3
Kolasa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kolasa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 2.00 / Kolasa 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Kolasa)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13077163
Nowalinski2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog37% won 130 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back18% 36 of 201
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 93
Kolasa1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite78% won 59 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowalinski3wins
AwayKolasa7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolasa leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinski60%3 of 5
AwayKolasa100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski5Kolasa5n = 10split evenly
S2Nowalinski4Kolasa6n = 10Kolasa took 6 of 10
S3Nowalinski3Kolasa7n = 10Kolasa took 7 of 10
S4Nowalinski5Kolasa5n = 10split evenly
S5Nowalinski1Kolasa2n = 3Kolasa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowalinskiKolasaN − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.741.8−2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiKolasaBasisWin rate · lifetime837 / 1738 vs 280 / 51048.2%54.9%837 / 1738 vs 280 / 510Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolasaNowalinski 2.00/Kolasa 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Kolasa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 07:20M. Nowalinski—51181192S. Kolasa—113116113
LJul 15 · 13:50M. Nowalinski—138881S. Kolasa—111111113
LMar 28 · 12:35M. Nowalinski—91191152S. Kolasa—117119113
LMar 28 · 08:15M. Nowalinski—612571S. Kolasa—111011113
LJan 25 · 12:35M. Nowalinski—911671S. Kolasa—11811113
LJan 25 · 09:25M. Nowalinski—114481S. Kolasa—81111113
LOct 24 · 15:10M. Nowalinski—11101171S. Kolasa—13126113
WOct 17 · 14:50M. Nowalinski—11911113S. Kolasa—811891
WOct 17 · 09:35M. Nowalinski—111412113S. Kolasa—8161061
WSep 6 · 15:10M. Nowalinski—1181111113S. Kolasa—41113572
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
S. Kolasa10
LSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113LSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621WSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162WSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113LSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113
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S. Kolasa
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