TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077160
Played Sep 5Finished
Maciej Domin
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711119911118118
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMaciej Nowalinski to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaciej Domin above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Maciej Nowalinski at 56.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Domin 2–10 Maciej Nowalinski Maciej Domin has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:48What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Nowalinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-10 in 12
Nowalinski
Wrong
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Domin 1783 vs Nowalinski 1771
Domin
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Domin 20% vs Nowalinski 60%
Nowalinski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Domin 40% vs Nowalinski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Domin -3 · Nowalinski +2
Domin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Nowalinski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Domin form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDomin 2.25 / Nowalinski 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Nowalinski)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13077160
Domin2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back30% 31 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Nowalinski1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 190 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it100% 63 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it84% 136 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDomin2wins
AwayNowalinski8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNowalinski leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDomin20%1 of 5
AwayNowalinski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Domin5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Domin2Nowalinski8n = 10Nowalinski took 8 of 10
S3Domin5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S4Domin2Nowalinski5n = 7Nowalinski took 5 of 7
S5Domin1Nowalinski3n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDominNowalinskiD − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.542.0−4.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDominNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 931 vs 839 / 174052.1%48.2%485 / 931 vs 839 / 1740Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiDomin 2.25/Nowalinski 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.2%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Domin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJan 31 · 06:25M. Domin—117121282M. Nowalinski—6111014113
LJan 9 · 14:15M. Domin—1071212102M. Nowalinski—12111010123
LSep 25 · 15:30M. Domin—6650M. Nowalinski—1111113
WAug 22 · 19:25M. Domin—1111113M. Nowalinski—6850
LAug 9 · 19:50M. Domin—1113410112M. Nowalinski—8111112133
LJun 9 · 01:10M. Domin—118571M. Nowalinski—91111113
LJun 8 · 22:45M. Domin—114481M. Nowalinski—71111113
LJun 8 · 16:00M. Domin—10970M. Nowalinski—1211113
WMay 18 · 21:35M. Domin—1181112113M. Nowalinski—131191042
LMay 11 · 17:55M. Domin—8911101M. Nowalinski—11119123
M. Domin10
WSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203WSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162LSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113WSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
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