TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077156
Played Sep 5Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151181412––––
Szymon Sporek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMaciej Nowalinski to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Szymon Sporek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 61 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Maciej Nowalinski at 54.5%
61 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 17–14 Szymon Sporek Szymon Sporek has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nowalinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-14 in 31
Nowalinski
Correct
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1758 vs Sporek 1716
Nowalinski
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 40% vs Sporek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 30% vs Sporek 60%
Sporek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski +1 · Sporek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nowalinski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 1.73 / Sporek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nowalinski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13077156
Nowalinski1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite61% won 190 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it100% 63 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it84% 136 of 162
Sporek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowalinski4wins
AwaySporek6wins
8 of 10 to a deciderSporek leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinski75%3 of 4
AwaySporek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski4Sporek6n = 10Sporek took 6 of 10
S2Nowalinski5Sporek5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowalinski5Sporek5n = 10split evenly
S4Nowalinski6Sporek4n = 10Nowalinski took 6 of 10
S5Nowalinski3Sporek5n = 8Sporek took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowalinskiSporekN − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.546.6−2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiSporekBasisWin rate · lifetime838 / 1739 vs 410 / 82048.2%50%838 / 1739 vs 410 / 820Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiNowalinski 1.73/Sporek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 21 · 09:40M. Nowalinski—11811113S. Sporek—511591
LJul 20 · 09:40M. Nowalinski—78111172S. Sporek—111149113
LJul 20 · 07:20M. Nowalinski—91151182S. Sporek—116118113
LJul 15 · 10:05M. Nowalinski—61271162S. Sporek—1110119113
WMay 28 · 07:15M. Nowalinski—811811113S. Sporek—11911882
LMay 20 · 14:25M. Nowalinski—81161162S. Sporek—117117113
LMay 3 · 21:10M. Nowalinski—51111872S. Sporek—118911113
WApr 26 · 16:45M. Nowalinski—116226113S. Sporek—911201172
LApr 25 · 21:10M. Nowalinski—1110761S. Sporek—81211113
WApr 2 · 12:00M. Nowalinski—1161310113S. Sporek—611111272
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111
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