TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13071283
Played Sep 4Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111113118117811
Pawel Kurek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRafal Skotniczny above · Pawel Kurek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 98 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Rafal Skotniczny at 56.5%
98 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 1–0 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skotniczny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1479 vs Kurek 1382
Skotniczny
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 80% vs Kurek 40%
Skotniczny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 60% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +4 · Kurek -1
Skotniczny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.61 / Kurek 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Skotniczny)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13071283
Skotniczny1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 212 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it95% 111 of 117
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 197
Kurek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 112 of 289
Down 0–1, comes back23% 38 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkotniczny1wins
AwayKurek0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkotnicznyKurekS − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match50.038.0+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime576 / 1002 vs 369 / 73957.5%49.9%576 / 1002 vs 369 / 739Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.61/Kurek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 19 · 08:20R. Skotniczny—118119113P. Kurek—51161152
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181WSep 4 · 11:25R. Skotniczny1.731611113P. Kurek2.0014740WSep 4 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.90115941R. Skotniczny1.8091111113LSep 4 · 09:25R. Skotniczny2.20711126132J. Pruszkowski1.611151011153LSep 4 · 07:45R. Skotniczny1.91712100Z. Sobkow1.801114123
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 4 · 11:25R. Skotniczny1.731611113P. Kurek2.0014740
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