TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049184
Played Aug 31Finished
Volodymyr Bilobrov
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210911114411811
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:04 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Karpenko to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Bilobrov above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleh Karpenko at 70.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Bilobrov 2–6 Oleh Karpenko Volodymyr Bilobrov has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Karpenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Karpenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bilobrov 1568 vs Karpenko 1686
Karpenko
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bilobrov 20% vs Karpenko 100%
Karpenko
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bilobrov 40% vs Karpenko 100%
Karpenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bilobrov -4 · Karpenko +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Karpenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBilobrov 2.75 / Karpenko 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Karpenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049184
Bilobrov2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 20 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Karpenko1.40
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 98 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 73 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBilobrov2wins
AwayKarpenko6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderKarpenko leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBilobrov50%2 of 4
AwayKarpenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bilobrov4Karpenko4n = 8split evenly
S2Bilobrov2Karpenko6n = 8Karpenko took 6 of 8
S3Bilobrov4Karpenko4n = 8split evenly
S4Bilobrov1Karpenko3n = 4Karpenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricBilobrovKarpenkoB − KBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match31.435.4−4.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBilobrovKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 157 vs 354 / 67545.2%52.4%71 / 157 vs 354 / 675Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpenkoBilobrov 2.75/Karpenko 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Karpenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 31 · 06:30V. Bilobrov—12911482O. Karpenko—1011411113
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Bilobrov—81180O. Karpenko—1113113
LAug 17 · 06:30V. Bilobrov—71080O. Karpenko—1112113
WAug 13 · 13:30V. Bilobrov—1111113O. Karpenko—3480
LAug 11 · 04:30V. Bilobrov—115681O. Karpenko—81111113
LAug 4 · 08:35V. Bilobrov—52110O. Karpenko—1111133
WJul 20 · 06:05V. Bilobrov—11611113O. Karpenko—511661
LJun 26 · 05:05V. Bilobrov—61111162O. Karpenko—118711113
V. Bilobrov10
LAug 31 · 11:30V. Bilobrov1.91111197102A. Troyan1.80981111123WAug 31 · 09:30I. Emets3.40741191V. Bilobrov1.3011118113WAug 31 · 07:30O. Volynets2.6310790V. Bilobrov1.441211113LAug 31 · 05:30D. Khairov1.801111123V. Bilobrov1.9148100LAug 25 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2.3881180O. Karpenko1.531113113LAug 25 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.4411611113V. Bilobrov2.63911971LAug 25 · 08:00V. Bilobrov1.9111113462A. Troyan1.80961111113WAug 25 · 07:00I. Emets2.5026120V. Bilobrov1.501111143WAug 25 · 05:30V. Bilobrov1.44117914113O. Volynets2.63711111242WAug 19 · 10:38V. Smetenko1.5371151182V. Bilobrov2.38117115113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113WAug 25 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2.3881180O. Karpenko1.531113113
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