TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13005364
Played Aug 25Finished
Volodymyr Bilobrov
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111113811––––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:50 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeOleh Karpenko to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Bilobrov above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 62 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Oleh Karpenko at 65.5%
62 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Bilobrov 2–5 Oleh Karpenko Volodymyr Bilobrov has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:50What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Karpenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Karpenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bilobrov 1581 vs Karpenko 1583
Karpenko
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bilobrov 60% vs Karpenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bilobrov 60% vs Karpenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bilobrov -2 · Karpenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Karpenko) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bilobrov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBilobrov 2.38 / Karpenko 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Karpenko)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #13005364
Bilobrov2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Karpenko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 93 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it77% 70 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBilobrov2wins
AwayKarpenko5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderKarpenko leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBilobrov66.7%2 of 3
AwayKarpenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bilobrov3Karpenko4n = 7Karpenko took 4 of 7
S2Bilobrov2Karpenko5n = 7Karpenko took 5 of 7
S3Bilobrov3Karpenko4n = 7Karpenko took 4 of 7
S4Bilobrov1Karpenko2n = 3Karpenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricBilobrovKarpenkoB − KBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match29.633.7−4.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBilobrovKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 152 vs 339 / 66045.4%51.4%69 / 152 vs 339 / 660Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpenkoBilobrov 2.38/Karpenko 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Karpenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Bilobrov—81180O. Karpenko—1113113
LAug 17 · 06:30V. Bilobrov—71080O. Karpenko—1112113
WAug 13 · 13:30V. Bilobrov—1111113O. Karpenko—3480
LAug 11 · 04:30V. Bilobrov—115681O. Karpenko—81111113
LAug 4 · 08:35V. Bilobrov—52110O. Karpenko—1111133
WJul 20 · 06:05V. Bilobrov—11611113O. Karpenko—511661
LJun 26 · 05:05V. Bilobrov—61111162O. Karpenko—118711113
V. Bilobrov10
LAug 31 · 11:30V. Bilobrov1.91111197102A. Troyan1.80981111123WAug 31 · 09:30I. Emets3.40741191V. Bilobrov1.3011118113WAug 31 · 07:30O. Volynets2.6310790V. Bilobrov1.441211113LAug 31 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.7512911482O. Karpenko1.401011411113LAug 31 · 05:30D. Khairov1.801111123V. Bilobrov1.9148100LAug 25 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.4411611113V. Bilobrov2.63911971LAug 25 · 08:00V. Bilobrov1.9111113462A. Troyan1.80961111113WAug 25 · 07:00I. Emets2.5026120V. Bilobrov1.501111143WAug 25 · 05:30V. Bilobrov1.44117914113O. Volynets2.63711111242WAug 19 · 10:38V. Smetenko1.5371151182V. Bilobrov2.38117115113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113WAug 31 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.7512911482O. Karpenko1.401011411113
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