TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13047990
Played Aug 31Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012114511911––
Frantisek Nadymacek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:11 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Nadymacek to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Frantisek Nadymacek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Frantisek Nadymacek at 62.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 4–7 Frantisek Nadymacek Zbynek Pagac has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:11What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nadymacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Nadymacek
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1549 vs Nadymacek 1777
Nadymacek
Correct
both rated, 228 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 20% vs Nadymacek 100%
Nadymacek
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 30% vs Nadymacek 80%
Nadymacek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac -3 · Nadymacek +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Nadymacek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadymacek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 2.38 / Nadymacek 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Nadymacek)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13047990
Pagac2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 110 of 267
Down 0–1, comes back20% 30 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 98
Nadymacek1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 17 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac4wins
AwayNadymacek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNadymacek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac100%4 of 4
AwayNadymacek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac4Nadymacek6n = 10Nadymacek took 6 of 10
S2Pagac5Nadymacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Pagac6Nadymacek4n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S4Pagac3Nadymacek5n = 8Nadymacek took 5 of 8
S5Pagac1Nadymacek2n = 3Nadymacek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacNadymacekP − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.237.8−1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacNadymacekBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 624 vs 28 / 4147.8%68.3%298 / 624 vs 28 / 41Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadymacekPagac 2.38/Nadymacek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Nadymacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nadymacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 14:00Z. Pagac—6101161F. Nadymacek—11125113
WAug 16 · 16:30Z. Pagac—11911113F. Nadymacek—511481
WAug 10 · 14:30Z. Pagac—11115113F. Nadymacek—981151
LAug 5 · 17:28Z. Pagac—31461172F. Nadymacek—1112116113
LAug 5 · 15:00Z. Pagac—1071151F. Nadymacek—12118113
WAug 4 · 12:58Z. Pagac—111152113F. Nadymacek—96111182
LAug 4 · 12:30Z. Pagac—6101151F. Nadymacek—11126113
LAug 3 · 13:28Z. Pagac—71111572F. Nadymacek—116611113
WAug 3 · 12:00Z. Pagac—1111113F. Nadymacek—7390
LJul 23 · 15:00Z. Pagac—111080F. Nadymacek—1312113
Z. Pagac10
LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192LSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.839713101T. Kypr1.83111111123
F. Nadymacek10
LSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.00811681F. Nadymacek1.7311711113WSep 1 · 15:30F. Nadymacek1.571111123L. Kern2.2565100LSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881WAug 31 · 17:29F. Nadymacek1.6711611113M. Holub2.10911681LAug 31 · 16:00M. Holub2.501111113F. Nadymacek1.507760WAug 31 · 14:30F. Nadymacek1.441111113M. Chalupa2.638660WAug 31 · 13:30F. Nadymacek1.8311812123L. Kern1.8331110101WAug 31 · 12:30F. Nadymacek1.5011117113D. Szotek2.50581181WAug 31 · 11:00F. Nadymacek1.83781111113L. Kern1.8311114282
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