TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043719
Played Aug 30Finished
Viacheslav Yarovyi
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611118119711811
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Yarovyi above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 81.3%
93 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Yarovyi 2–13 Serhii Honcharenko Viacheslav Yarovyi has won 2 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-13 in 15
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yarovyi 920 vs Honcharenko 1353
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 432 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yarovyi 20% vs Honcharenko 60%
Honcharenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yarovyi 30% vs Honcharenko 80%
Honcharenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yarovyi -1 · Honcharenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Honcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYarovyi 3.75 / Honcharenko 1.25
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Honcharenko)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13043719
Yarovyi3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog25% won 15 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back10% 4 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Honcharenko1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 85 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it83% 68 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYarovyi1wins
AwayHoncharenko9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYarovyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHoncharenko100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yarovyi2Honcharenko8n = 10Honcharenko took 8 of 10
S2Yarovyi5Honcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Yarovyi3Honcharenko7n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S4Yarovyi1Honcharenko6n = 7Honcharenko took 6 of 7
S5Yarovyi1Honcharenko3n = 4Honcharenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricYarovyiHoncharenkoY − HBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.542.4−5.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYarovyiHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 99 vs 410 / 81027.3%50.6%27 / 99 vs 410 / 810Avg sets wonper match1.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoYarovyi 3.75/Honcharenko 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 05:00V. Yarovyi—61111782S. Honcharenko—118911113
LJul 13 · 06:00V. Yarovyi—111111492S. Honcharenko—134911113
LJun 9 · 07:30V. Yarovyi—1011791S. Honcharenko—12911113
LMay 26 · 09:00V. Yarovyi—1110691S. Honcharenko—81211113
LApr 29 · 09:00V. Yarovyi—6590S. Honcharenko—1111113
LSep 7 · 17:30V. Yarovyi—811991S. Honcharenko—11911113
LSep 7 · 14:00V. Yarovyi—11960S. Honcharenko—1311113
LJul 14 · 07:00V. Yarovyi—918115112S. Honcharenko—1116411133
LJul 12 · 09:30V. Yarovyi—6870S. Honcharenko—1111113
WJun 15 · 08:00V. Yarovyi—115711113S. Honcharenko—61111872
V. Yarovyi10
LAug 30 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov1.13118812113V. Yarovyi5.50411111072LAug 30 · 08:00V. Yarovyi3.257880V. Matviichuk1.331111113WAug 30 · 06:30V. Yarovyi2.631111113A. Lysyi1.449590LAug 29 · 17:35A. Danylov1.506111112113V. Yarovyi2.5011871432WAug 29 · 16:30V. Yarovyi2.6311611113S. Zherykhin1.44911931LAug 29 · 15:30V. Yarovyi2.109670A. Lysyi1.671111113LAug 29 · 14:00V. Yarovyi3.254480O. Levytskyi1.331111113LAug 29 · 13:00V. Yarovyi2.50711781A. Danylov1.5011311113LAug 17 · 09:59V. Khyzhnyak1.8011511123V. Yarovyi1.919119101LAug 17 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko1.571111113V. Yarovyi2.256970
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871WSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691
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