TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12444945
Played Aug 17Finished
Yurii Urezchenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119117––––
Viacheslav Yarovyi
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeYurii Urezchenko to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Urezchenko above · Viacheslav Yarovyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Yurii Urezchenko at 59.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Urezchenko 10–7 Viacheslav Yarovyi Viacheslav Yarovyi has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Urezchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Urezchenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urezchenko 1081 vs Yarovyi 967
Urezchenko
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urezchenko 60% vs Yarovyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urezchenko 60% vs Yarovyi 40%
Urezchenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urezchenko -1 · Yarovyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Urezchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yarovyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrezchenko 1.57 / Yarovyi 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Urezchenko)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12444945
Urezchenko1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 62 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it80% 43 of 54
Yarovyi2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog24% won 12 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrezchenko6wins
AwayYarovyi4wins
8 of 10 to a deciderUrezchenko leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrezchenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayYarovyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urezchenko7Yarovyi3n = 10Urezchenko took 7 of 10
S2Urezchenko3Yarovyi7n = 10Yarovyi took 7 of 10
S3Urezchenko8Yarovyi2n = 10Urezchenko took 8 of 10
S4Urezchenko4Yarovyi5n = 9Yarovyi took 5 of 9
S5Urezchenko4Yarovyi4n = 8split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrezchenkoYarovyiU − YBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match47.745.7+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrezchenkoYarovyiBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 470 vs 27 / 10044.5%27%209 / 470 vs 27 / 100Avg sets wonper match1.81.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrezchenkoUrezchenko 1.57/Yarovyi 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.9%
Urezchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Urezchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 13 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—98111182V. Yarovyi—111176113
WJul 12 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko—111299113V. Yarovyi—610111182
WJun 29 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—1111710113V. Yarovyi—78111292
LJun 28 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko—6111111102V. Yarovyi—111389123
WJun 9 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—1111113V. Yarovyi—9650
LJun 8 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—143138122V. Yarovyi—12111111143
WMay 26 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—11711113V. Yarovyi—311981
WMay 25 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—142118113V. Yarovyi—121181192
LApr 29 · 10:28Y. Urezchenko—119119182V. Yarovyi—811811203
WApr 29 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—991211113V. Yarovyi—111110862
Y. Urezchenko10
WSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110WSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.611612113S. Zherykhin2.20141010LSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173LSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113LSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450LSep 1 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.616111111113Y. Urezchenko2.2011138662WSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.2011114113O. Badanin1.61781191
V. Yarovyi10
LAug 30 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov1.13118812113V. Yarovyi5.50411111072LAug 30 · 08:00V. Yarovyi3.257880V. Matviichuk1.331111113WAug 30 · 06:30V. Yarovyi2.631111113A. Lysyi1.449590LAug 30 · 05:00V. Yarovyi3.7561111782S. Honcharenko1.25118911113LAug 29 · 17:35A. Danylov1.506111112113V. Yarovyi2.5011871432WAug 29 · 16:30V. Yarovyi2.6311611113S. Zherykhin1.44911931LAug 29 · 15:30V. Yarovyi2.109670A. Lysyi1.671111113LAug 29 · 14:00V. Yarovyi3.254480O. Levytskyi1.331111113LAug 29 · 13:00V. Yarovyi2.50711781A. Danylov1.5011311113LAug 17 · 09:59V. Khyzhnyak1.8011511123V. Yarovyi1.919119101
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