Josef Cabak vs David Heczko 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #13020139

Played Aug 27Finished

Josef Cabak

Home

1.73

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

411911119116211

David Heczko

Away

2.00

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Josef Cabak to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingJosef Cabak above · David Heczko below

Set 1 · 4-11

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 11-6

Set 5 · 2-11

Point 85 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Josef Cabak at 54.0%

85 points played in total.

H2H Josef Cabak 4–4 David Heczko Dead even across their 8 meetings.

Last 8 · 4–4Head to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 11:16

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Cabak

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

4-4 in 8

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Cabak 1605 vs Heczko 1620

Heczko

Correct

both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Cabak 40% vs Heczko 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Cabak 50% vs Heczko 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Cabak -1 · Heczko -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cabak)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Cabak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsCabak 1.73 / Heczko 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Cabak)+0.3pp

Czech Liga Pro · #13020139

Cabak1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite61% won 51 of 83

Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29

Up 1–0, closes it80% 40 of 50

Heczko2.00

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog50% won 53 of 107

Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 51

Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 8 meetings

HomeCabak4wins

AwayHeczko4wins

3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeCabak75%3 of 4

AwayHeczko75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Cabak4Heczko4n = 8split evenly

S2Cabak2Heczko6n = 8Heczko took 6 of 8

S3Cabak5Heczko3n = 8Cabak took 5 of 8

S4Cabak3Heczko3n = 6split evenly

S5Cabak2Heczko1n = 3Cabak took 2 of 3

How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home113%

3–1Four sets, home113%

3–2Decider, home225%

2–3Decider, away113%

1–3Four sets, away225%

0–3Straight, away113%

These 8 meetings

MetricCabakHeczkoC − HBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match39.040.1−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricCabakHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 184 vs 250 / 45253.3%55.3%98 / 184 vs 250 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Cabak

Cabak 1.73/Heczko 2.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Cabak · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Heczko won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record8

LAug 27 · 07:00J. Cabak—49111122D. Heczko—111196113

LAug 25 · 06:00J. Cabak—118941D. Heczko—71111113

WAug 7 · 07:30J. Cabak—1112113D. Heczko—81080

WJul 27 · 06:00J. Cabak—111111113D. Heczko—413791

WJun 18 · 10:30J. Cabak—8111113113D. Heczko—11781582

LJun 15 · 11:00J. Cabak—991151D. Heczko—11119113

LMay 8 · 13:30J. Cabak—9780D. Heczko—1111113

WMay 8 · 10:00J. Cabak—146911133D. Heczko—1211115112

J. Cabak10

LSep 1 · 09:30J. Cabak1.80111271672S. Byrtus1.915101118113 WSep 1 · 08:30J. Cabak1.831111143J. Snr1.8375120 WSep 1 · 07:00J. Cabak1.8311117113S. Byrtus1.83651171 LSep 1 · 06:00L. Martinak1.5711911113J. Cabak2.25911811 LAug 27 · 08:59A. Walek2.00117114123J. Cabak1.73511311102 WAug 27 · 08:30J. Cabak1.73981111113A. Walek2.0011115382 LAug 27 · 06:00S. Byrtus2.0071111113J. Cabak1.73116681 WAug 25 · 09:00J. Cabak1.73121411113A. Walek2.001412691 LAug 25 · 08:30J. Cabak1.61112781S. Byrtus2.2081111113 WAug 25 · 07:00J. Cabak1.801111113A. Walek1.917970

D. Heczko10

LSep 5 · 13:04D. Heczko3.257240D. Langer1.331111113 LSep 5 · 12:00M. Bereiter1.53148811133D. Heczko2.381211118112 WSep 5 · 11:00D. Langer1.8016911562D. Heczko1.911411711113 LSep 5 · 10:30D. Heczko1.61871151A. Walek2.2011117113 LSep 5 · 09:29D. Heczko1.57139281J. Snr2.25111111113 WSep 5 · 08:00L. Martinak1.809980D. Heczko1.911111113 LSep 5 · 07:00A. Walek2.10121112113D. Heczko1.671481071 WSep 5 · 06:30D. Heczko1.6771511113J. Snr2.101113971 WSep 2 · 16:59D. Heczko1.83118711113S. Byrtus1.8381111572 WSep 2 · 16:00D. Heczko1.911211113S. Byrtus1.8010850

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