TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13018904
Played Aug 27Finished
Samuel Byrtus
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116116118––
Josef Cabak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:46 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeSamuel Byrtus to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSamuel Byrtus above · Josef Cabak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Samuel Byrtus at 57.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Samuel Byrtus 10–7 Josef Cabak Josef Cabak has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cabak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Byrtus
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Byrtus 1662 vs Cabak 1605
Byrtus
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Byrtus 60% vs Cabak 40%
Byrtus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Byrtus 60% vs Cabak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Byrtus -1 · Cabak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cabak) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cabak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsByrtus 2.00 / Cabak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cabak)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13018904
Byrtus2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 74 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back28% 24 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Cabak1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 51 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it80% 40 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeByrtus4wins
AwayCabak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCabak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeByrtusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCabak75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Byrtus2Cabak8n = 10Cabak took 8 of 10
S2Byrtus5Cabak5n = 10split evenly
S3Byrtus6Cabak4n = 10Byrtus took 6 of 10
S4Byrtus3Cabak4n = 7Cabak took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricByrtusCabakB − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.436.0−0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricByrtusCabakBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 580 vs 98 / 18451.4%53.3%298 / 580 vs 98 / 184Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CabakByrtus 2.00/Cabak 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cabak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Byrtus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 06:00S. Byrtus—71111113J. Cabak—116681
WAug 25 · 08:30S. Byrtus—81111113J. Cabak—112781
LAug 14 · 10:30S. Byrtus—1112681J. Cabak—131011113
LAug 13 · 08:00S. Byrtus—109111282J. Cabak—1211810113
LAug 7 · 09:30S. Byrtus—6780J. Cabak—1111113
LAug 7 · 08:30S. Byrtus—9860J. Cabak—1111113
LJul 27 · 07:00S. Byrtus—971161J. Cabak—11115113
WJul 10 · 09:30S. Byrtus—111166113J. Cabak—47111192
LJul 10 · 08:30S. Byrtus—6101141J. Cabak—11124113
WJul 1 · 10:00S. Byrtus—1111113J. Cabak—3890
S. Byrtus10
LSep 2 · 16:59D. Heczko1.83118711113S. Byrtus1.8381111572LSep 2 · 16:00D. Heczko1.911211113S. Byrtus1.8010850LSep 2 · 15:00A. Walek2.0011911123S. Byrtus1.738116101LSep 2 · 14:30S. Byrtus1.73211661D. Langer2.0011911113WSep 1 · 09:30J. Cabak1.80111271672S. Byrtus1.915101118113WSep 1 · 08:00L. Martinak1.83113101172S. Byrtus1.83711126113LSep 1 · 07:00J. Cabak1.8311117113S. Byrtus1.83651171WSep 1 · 06:30S. Byrtus2.001111113J. Snr1.738770WAug 31 · 09:07D. Langer2.254980S. Byrtus1.571111113LAug 31 · 08:00S. Byrtus1.91814110D. Heczko1.801116133
J. Cabak10
LSep 1 · 09:30J. Cabak1.80111271672S. Byrtus1.915101118113WSep 1 · 08:30J. Cabak1.831111143J. Snr1.8375120WSep 1 · 07:00J. Cabak1.8311117113S. Byrtus1.83651171LSep 1 · 06:00L. Martinak1.5711911113J. Cabak2.25911811LAug 27 · 08:59A. Walek2.00117114123J. Cabak1.73511311102WAug 27 · 08:30J. Cabak1.73981111113A. Walek2.0011115382LAug 27 · 07:00J. Cabak1.7349111122D. Heczko2.00111196113WAug 25 · 09:00J. Cabak1.73121411113A. Walek2.001412691LAug 25 · 08:30J. Cabak1.61112781S. Byrtus2.2081111113WAug 25 · 07:00J. Cabak1.801111113A. Walek1.917970
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