TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13018130
Played Aug 27Finished
Josef Cabak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911811115113118
Adrian Walek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:35 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeJosef Cabak to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Cabak above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 88 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Josef Cabak at 55.6%
88 points played in total.
H2H Josef Cabak 7–6 Adrian Walek Adrian Walek has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:35What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cabak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cabak 1606 vs Walek 1600
Cabak
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cabak 40% vs Walek 60%
Walek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cabak 40% vs Walek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cabak -2 · Walek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cabak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cabak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCabak 1.73 / Walek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cabak)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13018130
Cabak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 50 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it82% 40 of 49
Walek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 87 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back34% 31 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back19% 8 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCabak5wins
AwayWalek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCabak60%3 of 5
AwayWalek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cabak5Walek5n = 10split evenly
S2Cabak4Walek6n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S3Cabak6Walek4n = 10Cabak took 6 of 10
S4Cabak4Walek5n = 9Walek took 5 of 9
S5Cabak3Walek2n = 5Cabak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCabakWalekC − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.443.8−0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCabakWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 182 vs 219 / 43253.3%50.7%97 / 182 vs 219 / 432Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CabakCabak 1.73/Walek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Cabak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cabak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 09:00J. Cabak—121411113A. Walek—1412691
WAug 25 · 07:00J. Cabak—1111113A. Walek—7970
LAug 14 · 13:30J. Cabak—913751A. Walek—111111113
LAug 14 · 12:00J. Cabak—111171142A. Walek—413113113
WJul 13 · 09:30J. Cabak—1111123123A. Walek—6131011102
LJul 13 · 08:00J. Cabak—11611782A. Walek—611911113
WJul 10 · 06:30J. Cabak—691114133A. Walek—1111612112
LJul 3 · 08:30J. Cabak—861181A. Walek—11115113
LJul 1 · 11:00J. Cabak—12111071A. Walek—14812113
WJun 18 · 12:30J. Cabak—114911223A. Walek—711117202
J. Cabak10
LSep 1 · 09:30J. Cabak1.80111271672S. Byrtus1.915101118113WSep 1 · 08:30J. Cabak1.831111143J. Snr1.8375120WSep 1 · 07:00J. Cabak1.8311117113S. Byrtus1.83651171LSep 1 · 06:00L. Martinak1.5711911113J. Cabak2.25911811LAug 27 · 08:59A. Walek2.00117114123J. Cabak1.73511311102LAug 27 · 07:00J. Cabak1.7349111122D. Heczko2.00111196113LAug 27 · 06:00S. Byrtus2.0071111113J. Cabak1.73116681WAug 25 · 09:00J. Cabak1.73121411113A. Walek2.001412691LAug 25 · 08:30J. Cabak1.61112781S. Byrtus2.2081111113WAug 25 · 07:00J. Cabak1.801111113A. Walek1.917970
A. Walek10
WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153LSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172LSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113LSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer1.91791111113A. Walek1.8011116972WSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WAug 27 · 08:59A. Walek2.00117114123J. Cabak1.73511311102LAug 25 · 09:00J. Cabak1.73121411113A. Walek2.001412691LAug 25 · 07:00J. Cabak1.801111113A. Walek1.917970
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