TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13007351
Played Aug 25Finished
Roman Konkulovskyi
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511611––––
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Konkulovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Konkulovskyi above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Roman Konkulovskyi at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Roman Konkulovskyi 24–36 Oleksandr Pohonov Roman Konkulovskyi has won 24 of their 60 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:45What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pohonov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-36 in 60
Pohonov
Correct
gap of 12 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Konkulovskyi 1704 vs Pohonov 1659
Konkulovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Konkulovskyi 40% vs Pohonov 80%
Pohonov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Konkulovskyi 50% vs Pohonov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Konkulovskyi -3 · Pohonov +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pohonov) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohonov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKonkulovskyi 2.10 / Pohonov 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pohonov)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13007351
Konkulovskyi2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 132 of 315
Down 0–1, comes back23% 41 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 99
Pohonov1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 185 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it93% 93 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it77% 137 of 179
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKonkulovskyi5wins
AwayPohonov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKonkulovskyi66.7%4 of 6
AwayPohonov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Konkulovskyi6Pohonov4n = 10Konkulovskyi took 6 of 10
S2Konkulovskyi3Pohonov7n = 10Pohonov took 7 of 10
S3Konkulovskyi6Pohonov4n = 10Konkulovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Konkulovskyi3Pohonov2n = 5Konkulovskyi took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKonkulovskyiPohonovK − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.235.0−1.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKonkulovskyiPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 669 vs 233 / 45449.9%51.3%334 / 669 vs 233 / 454Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PohonovKonkulovskyi 2.10/Pohonov 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pohonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pohonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 29 · 18:35R. Konkulovskyi—111111113O. Pohonov—613591
LJul 28 · 20:30R. Konkulovskyi—119591O. Pohonov—91111113
LJul 26 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi—1131471O. Pohonov—81116113
WJul 23 · 11:05R. Konkulovskyi—1112123O. Pohonov—610100
WJul 22 · 18:35R. Konkulovskyi—1111113O. Pohonov—8580
LJul 21 · 20:30R. Konkulovskyi—65111132O. Pohonov—111188113
WJul 18 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi—1111113O. Pohonov—6770
LJul 16 · 11:05R. Konkulovskyi—4820O. Pohonov—1111113
LJul 15 · 18:35R. Konkulovskyi—6680O. Pohonov—1111113
WJul 14 · 20:30R. Konkulovskyi—5101111113O. Pohonov—11128882
R. Konkulovskyi10
LSep 6 · 02:15V. Zharskiy1.4031111143R. Konkulovskyi2.751144121WSep 6 · 01:15R. Konkulovskyi2.251211113V. Krokhmal1.5710890LSep 6 · 24:15R. Konkulovskyi1.83991291V. Slozka1.83111110113LSep 5 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi1.61751141B. Chaikovskyi2.2011116113LSep 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2051790O. Pohonov1.611119113WAug 26 · 01:00R. Konkulovskyi2.3812119143A. Romanenko1.5310911121LAug 26 · 24:00R. Konkulovskyi2.108290V. Krokhmal1.671111113LAug 25 · 22:30R. Konkulovskyi2.00111161282I. Sukovatyi1.73571114113WAug 23 · 02:15G. Kuzmenko1.7311118442R. Konkulovskyi2.00741111113WAug 23 · 01:15R. Konkulovskyi1.61111181113B. Chaikovskyi2.2065111162
O. Pohonov10
WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.731510571V. Slozka2.00131211113LSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy1.6711241192O. Pohonov2.10611116113WSep 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2051790O. Pohonov1.611119113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101WSep 3 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.441111113I. Sukovatyi2.634530LSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123LSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191
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