TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13003751
Played Aug 25Finished
Jiri Stach
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911511114411––
Vojtech Cerny
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:41 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeVojtech Cerny to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Stach above · Vojtech Cerny below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 66 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Vojtech Cerny at 62.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Stach 1–3 Vojtech Cerny Jiri Stach has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:41What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Cerny
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stach 1461 vs Cerny 1448
Stach
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stach 60% vs Cerny 80%
Cerny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stach 60% vs Cerny 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stach +2 · Cerny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStach 2.50 / Cerny 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Cerny)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13003751
Stach2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 40 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back35% 18 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back23% 6 of 26
Cerny1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 18 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it58% 14 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStach1wins
AwayCerny3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderCerny leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStachn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayCerny75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stach0Cerny4n = 4Cerny took 4 of 4
S2Stach0Cerny4n = 4Cerny took 4 of 4
S3Stach2Cerny2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricStachCernyS − CBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match29.537.0−7.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStachCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 309 vs 33 / 8047.6%41.3%147 / 309 vs 33 / 80Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyStach 2.50/Cerny 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 25 · 11:30J. Stach—951141V. Cerny—11114113
LAug 23 · 11:00J. Stach—9790V. Cerny—1111113
WAug 12 · 08:58J. Stach—391211113V. Cerny—111110852
LAug 12 · 08:30J. Stach—7470V. Cerny—1111113
J. Stach10
WSep 5 · 20:58M. Jasek1.73881112112J. Stach2.001111810133LSep 5 · 20:30M. Jasek1.911115113J. Stach1.8061370LSep 5 · 19:30J. Stach2.5087110I. Taichman1.501111133LSep 5 · 18:30T. Kraninger1.801011811113J. Stach1.9112711872WSep 1 · 08:58D. Mikula2.203840J. Stach1.611111113WSep 1 · 08:30J. Stach1.7391111113P. Varecha2.00114471LSep 1 · 07:00J. Stach1.619650F. Zurek2.201111113LSep 1 · 06:00D. Mikula2.63111110113J. Stach1.44581221LAug 25 · 13:30V. Cerny1.40121177113J. Stach2.75106111152LAug 25 · 12:30F. Zurek2.38116119113J. Stach1.5351161192
V. Cerny10
LSep 5 · 21:30V. Cerny1.4811760R. Guliak2.451311113WSep 5 · 20:00V. Cerny1.6713711143M. Blejchar2.1011117121WSep 5 · 19:30F. Zurek2.751111941V. Cerny1.4013711113WSep 5 · 18:00V. Cerny1.53119114113R. Guliak2.3881181142WSep 3 · 09:03V. Cerny1.531011119113V. Bosak2.3812451192LSep 3 · 08:30F. Zurek3.75911711113V. Cerny1.2511711962WSep 3 · 07:30V. Cerny1.831110115113M. Blejchar1.8361271192WSep 3 · 06:30V. Bosak1.7311891152V. Cerny2.00711116113WAug 28 · 17:29D. Mikula1.836850V. Cerny1.831111113WAug 25 · 13:30V. Cerny1.40121177113J. Stach2.75106111152
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