TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12480973
Played Aug 23Finished
Radek Muller
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191181012114––
Jachym Sebl
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:48 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeRadek Muller to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 76 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Radek Muller at 63.8%
76 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 19–11 Jachym Sebl Jachym Sebl has won 11 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:48What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Muller
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-11 in 30
Muller
Correct
gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1548 vs Sebl 1535
Muller
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 40% vs Sebl 80%
Sebl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 50% vs Sebl 70%
Sebl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -2 · Sebl +3
Sebl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Muller)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.53 / Sebl 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Muller)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12480973
Muller1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 43 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it79% 22 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it72% 31 of 43
Sebl2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 67 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller8wins
AwaySebl2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMuller leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller100%7 of 7
AwaySebl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller7Sebl3n = 10Muller took 7 of 10
S2Muller8Sebl2n = 10Muller took 8 of 10
S3Muller7Sebl3n = 10Muller took 7 of 10
S4Muller6Sebl0n = 6Muller took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerSeblM − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.529.0+10.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 334 vs 301 / 64450.3%46.7%168 / 334 vs 301 / 644Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.435.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerMuller 1.53/Sebl 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 19:50R. Muller—111110113J. Sebl—981241
WAug 10 · 18:55R. Muller—1111123J. Sebl—46100
LJul 24 · 19:25R. Muller—91191152J. Sebl—112116113
WJul 12 · 20:25R. Muller—1112123J. Sebl—810100
WJun 28 · 17:50R. Muller—1111113J. Sebl—2990
WJun 28 · 15:50R. Muller—101111113J. Sebl—125591
LJun 23 · 11:20R. Muller—107111182J. Sebl—121169113
WDec 3 · 09:20R. Muller—11711113J. Sebl—411551
WDec 1 · 07:50R. Muller—1111113J. Sebl—6650
WOct 14 · 08:20R. Muller—11119113J. Sebl—451161
R. Muller10
LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163LSep 1 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.00781112133R. Muller1.731111910112WSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113WSep 1 · 19:50R. Muller2.10131111113B. Budik1.60157781LSep 1 · 18:20J. Dohnal2.00612148113R. Muller1.731110121162LAug 28 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.0011118113R. Muller1.73941181LAug 28 · 20:55R. Muller1.576680J. Sebl2.251111113LAug 28 · 19:55R. Muller1.6110860J. Dohnal2.201211113WAug 28 · 18:55R. Muller1.93111199113B. Budik1.7775111132LAug 23 · 21:28T. Rein2.63911118113R. Muller1.4411981152
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 28 · 20:55R. Muller1.576680J. Sebl2.251111113
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