TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470444
Played Aug 22Finished
Frantisek Briza
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11591113119111412
Vaclav Nohejl
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:44 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nohejl to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFrantisek Briza above · Vaclav Nohejl below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 106 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Vaclav Nohejl at 55.2%
106 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Briza 4–1 Vaclav Nohejl Vaclav Nohejl has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:44What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Briza
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Briza
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Briza 1466 vs Nohejl 1497
Nohejl
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Briza 60% vs Nohejl 20%
Briza
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Briza 70% vs Nohejl 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Briza -1 · Nohejl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Briza) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nohejl form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBriza 1.67 / Nohejl 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Briza)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12470444
Briza1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 69 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it72% 52 of 72
Nohejl2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 27 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back39% 9 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back23% 3 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBriza4wins
AwayNohejl1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderBriza leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBriza80%4 of 5
AwayNohejln = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Briza5Nohejl0n = 5Briza took 5 of 5
S2Briza3Nohejl2n = 5Briza took 3 of 5
S3Briza4Nohejl1n = 5Briza took 4 of 5
S4Briza1Nohejl2n = 3Nohejl took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBrizaNohejlB − NBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match41.634.4+7.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrizaNohejlBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 837 vs 93 / 16746.1%55.7%386 / 837 vs 93 / 167Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrizaBriza 1.67/Nohejl 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Briza · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Briza won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 22 · 20:30F. Briza—119139143V. Nohejl—5111111122
LJul 27 · 17:00F. Briza—111011962V. Nohejl—812911113
WJul 27 · 14:00F. Briza—1111113V. Nohejl—4780
WJun 12 · 19:00F. Briza—1113113V. Nohejl—61120
WJun 8 · 19:00F. Briza—11114113V. Nohejl—691171
F. Briza10
WSep 6 · 17:30F. Briza1.8012711113J. Novotny1.911011651WSep 6 · 16:00A. Svoboda2.38111112392F. Briza1.53661411113WSep 6 · 15:00J. Novotny2.00411691F. Briza1.7311211113WSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:30F. Jungman1.571111113F. Briza2.257980WSep 6 · 12:30F. Briza1.531111113L. Malek2.387860LSep 6 · 11:00F. Briza2.006820F. Jungman1.731111113WSep 6 · 10:00K. Darin1.6111841182F. Briza2.20911119113LSep 2 · 17:30Y. Holovatiuk1.39971111113F. Briza2.5511112952WSep 2 · 16:30F. Briza2.2511111111113D. Horak1.5741381372
V. Nohejl10
LAug 22 · 21:05V. Nohejl1.619311101L. Krok2.2011116123WAug 22 · 19:30V. Nohejl2.001111113L. Krok1.735760LAug 22 · 18:30T. Kolenic1.73111111133V. Nohejl2.001339111LAug 16 · 09:28J. Didi2.201111113V. Nohejl1.619390WAug 16 · 08:30D. Barton2.75631191V. Nohejl1.4011119113LAug 16 · 07:30V. Nohejl1.53111151182J. Didi2.38813118113LAug 16 · 06:30M. Tacinec2.63118128113V. Nohejl1.44911101192WAug 15 · 13:30V. Nohejl1.44119118113M. Stefek2.6371171182WAug 15 · 12:00V. Nohejl1.408111011113M. Stefek2.7511612492WAug 15 · 11:30J. Didi1.8311814552V. Nohejl1.839111211113
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