TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12438529
Played Aug 16Finished
David Barton
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611311119911––
Vaclav Nohejl
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:13 and never touched — 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nohejl to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Barton above · Vaclav Nohejl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vaclav Nohejl at 63.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H David Barton 2–3 Vaclav Nohejl David Barton has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Nohejl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barton 1351 vs Nohejl 1487
Nohejl
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 20% vs Nohejl 60%
Nohejl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 40% vs Nohejl 70%
Nohejl
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton +1 · Nohejl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Nohejl) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nohejl form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 2.75 / Nohejl 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Nohejl)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12438529
Barton2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 16 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Nohejl1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 49 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it72% 36 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBarton2wins
AwayNohejl3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderNohejl leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarton66.7%2 of 3
AwayNohejln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barton3Nohejl2n = 5Barton took 3 of 5
S2Barton4Nohejl1n = 5Barton took 4 of 5
S3Barton1Nohejl4n = 5Nohejl took 4 of 5
S4Barton1Nohejl2n = 3Nohejl took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricBartonNohejlB − NBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match34.035.0−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonNohejlBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 247 vs 93 / 16651.4%56%127 / 247 vs 93 / 166Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NohejlBarton 2.75/Nohejl 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Nohejl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nohejl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 4 · 09:30D. Barton—9280V. Nohejl—1111113
LJul 4 · 06:30D. Barton—611981V. Nohejl—11711113
WJun 27 · 11:30D. Barton—13128113V. Nohejl—11101161
WApr 11 · 17:03D. Barton—1111113V. Nohejl—7480
LApr 11 · 15:30D. Barton—11113782V. Nohejl—661111113
D. Barton10
LAug 20 · 02:58T. Regner1.83125911123D. Barton1.831011115102LAug 20 · 02:00D. Barton1.611311119102T. Regner2.20155811123WAug 20 · 01:00D. Barton1.611111123V. Dolezal2.2098100LAug 20 · 24:00J. Didi1.831411113D. Barton1.8312780WAug 19 · 22:30O. Vitrovyj1.5013880D. Barton2.501511113LAug 18 · 15:59D. Barton2.2541330T. Prosa1.57111573WAug 16 · 08:59M. Tacinec2.0010970D. Barton1.731211113WAug 16 · 07:00D. Barton1.737111110113M. Tacinec2.0011531292LAug 16 · 06:00J. Didi2.501111133D. Barton1.5072110LJul 31 · 08:58T. Kolenic1.50711711113D. Barton2.5011711892
V. Nohejl10
LAug 22 · 21:05V. Nohejl1.619311101L. Krok2.2011116123LAug 22 · 20:30F. Briza1.67119139143V. Nohejl2.105111111122WAug 22 · 19:30V. Nohejl2.001111113L. Krok1.735760LAug 22 · 18:30T. Kolenic1.73111111133V. Nohejl2.001339111LAug 16 · 09:28J. Didi2.201111113V. Nohejl1.619390LAug 16 · 07:30V. Nohejl1.53111151182J. Didi2.38813118113LAug 16 · 06:30M. Tacinec2.63118128113V. Nohejl1.44911101192WAug 15 · 13:30V. Nohejl1.44119118113M. Stefek2.6371171182WAug 15 · 12:00V. Nohejl1.408111011113M. Stefek2.7511612492WAug 15 · 11:30J. Didi1.8311814552V. Nohejl1.839111211113
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