Pavel Gireth vs Ales Barton 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #12455867

Played Aug 19Finished

Pavel Gireth

Home

1.57

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1113117116911114

Ales Barton

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Ales Barton to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

pick shipped

How it is goingPavel Gireth above · Ales Barton below

Set 1 · 11-13

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 11-6

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 11-4

Point 94 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Ales Barton at 54.0%

94 points played in total.

H2H Pavel Gireth 1–2 Ales Barton Pavel Gireth has won 1 of their 3 meetings.

Last 3 · 1–2Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 14:59

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Gireth

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

1-2 in 3

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Gireth 1724 vs Barton 1807

Barton

Wrong

both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Gireth 40% vs Barton 80%

Barton

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Gireth 40% vs Barton 70%

Barton

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Gireth -2 · Barton -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Barton)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Barton form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsGireth 1.57 / Barton 2.25

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Barton)+12.9pp

Czech Liga Pro · #12455867

Gireth1.57

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite59% won 32 of 54

Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14

Up 1–0, closes it83% 19 of 23

Barton2.25

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog39% won 24 of 62

Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 3 meetings

HomeGireth1wins

AwayBarton2wins

Barton leads 2–1.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeGirethn = 0, below the 3 needed

AwayBarton66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Gireth0Barton3n = 3Barton took 3 of 3

S2Gireth2Barton1n = 3Gireth took 2 of 3

S3Gireth2Barton1n = 3Gireth took 2 of 3

S4Gireth1Barton2n = 3Barton took 2 of 3

How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home133%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away267%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 3 meetings

MetricGirethBartonG − BBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match31.337.3−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricGirethBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 197 vs 232 / 43852.8%53%104 / 197 vs 232 / 438Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Barton

Gireth 1.57/Barton 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Barton · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Gireth won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record3

WNov 20 · 16:00P. Gireth—31111113A. Barton—116681

LOct 2 · 17:30P. Gireth—811971A. Barton—11511113

LOct 2 · 14:00P. Gireth—241251A. Barton—111110113

P. Gireth10

WSep 2 · 17:30P. Gireth1.30912119153O. Svacha2.951110611132 WSep 2 · 16:00P. Gireth1.6111116113J. Ruzicka2.20681171 WSep 2 · 15:30O. Svacha3.258850P. Gireth1.331111113 WSep 2 · 14:00P. Gireth1.441111113M. Jezek2.638690 LAug 26 · 17:30P. Gireth1.576750J. Ruzicka2.201111113 WAug 26 · 16:00P. Gireth1.6111118113J. Ruzicka2.20871191 WAug 26 · 15:30V. Nohejl2.20681271P. Gireth1.61111110113 WAug 26 · 14:00P. Gireth1.44111111113M. Jezek2.63913981 LAug 19 · 17:08P. Gireth3.0019111172A. Barton1.36111187113 LAug 19 · 15:00P. Gireth1.28119141172M. Zahradka3.50411168113

A. Barton10

LAug 30 · 08:59A. Barton1.8016780M. Huk1.911811113 LAug 30 · 08:30J. Kanera1.731171110113A. Barton2.0061171292 WAug 30 · 07:30A. Barton1.67111199163M. Huk2.10961111142 LAug 30 · 06:30O. Kolisnyk1.57119511113A. Barton2.2561111562 WAug 29 · 13:30A. Barton1.5761111113J. Ruzicka2.25118571 WAug 29 · 12:00A. Barton2.1011121011123J. Kanera1.671310128102 WAug 29 · 11:30R. Urbaniec2.635880A. Barton1.441111113 WAug 29 · 10:00A. Barton1.531113115113J. Ruzicka2.3881571152 WAug 22 · 17:00O. Kolisnyk1.85711391A. Barton1.8011511113 WAug 19 · 17:08P. Gireth3.0019111172A. Barton1.36111187113

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