TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13013662
Played Aug 26Finished
Pavel Gireth
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191113119118––
Michal Jezek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:39 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timePavel Gireth to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Gireth above · Michal Jezek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 83 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Gireth at 58.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Gireth 5–3 Michal Jezek Michal Jezek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Gireth
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Gireth
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gireth 1751 vs Jezek 1703
Gireth
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gireth 40% vs Jezek 20%
Gireth
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gireth 40% vs Jezek 20%
Gireth
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gireth -1 · Jezek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Gireth) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jezek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGireth 1.44 / Jezek 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Gireth)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13013662
Gireth1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 29 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Jezek2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 55 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back39% 21 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back16% 5 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGireth5wins
AwayJezek3wins
5 of 8 to a deciderGireth leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGireth100%3 of 3
AwayJezek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gireth3Jezek5n = 8Jezek took 5 of 8
S2Gireth5Jezek3n = 8Gireth took 5 of 8
S3Gireth6Jezek2n = 8Gireth took 6 of 8
S4Gireth5Jezek1n = 6Gireth took 5 of 6
S5Gireth2Jezek3n = 5Jezek took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricGirethJezekG − JBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match39.636.5+3.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGirethJezekBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 199 vs 173 / 34952.8%49.6%105 / 199 vs 173 / 349Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GirethGireth 1.44/Jezek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Gireth · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gireth won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJan 22 · 18:03P. Gireth—117911113M. Jezek—91111642
WJan 22 · 17:30P. Gireth—61111113M. Jezek—116961
WJul 10 · 17:30P. Gireth—1111113M. Jezek—5190
WJul 10 · 14:00P. Gireth—1111113M. Jezek—7630
WJul 3 · 16:30P. Gireth—511118113M. Jezek—11791142
LJun 9 · 15:00P. Gireth—51151362M. Jezek—1161111113
LJun 3 · 17:00P. Gireth—39111142M. Jezek—111178113
LJun 3 · 14:00P. Gireth—38111162M. Jezek—111169113
P. Gireth10
WSep 2 · 17:30P. Gireth1.30912119153O. Svacha2.951110611132WSep 2 · 16:00P. Gireth1.6111116113J. Ruzicka2.20681171WSep 2 · 15:30O. Svacha3.258850P. Gireth1.331111113WSep 2 · 14:00P. Gireth1.441111113M. Jezek2.638690LAug 26 · 17:30P. Gireth1.576750J. Ruzicka2.201111113WAug 26 · 16:00P. Gireth1.6111118113J. Ruzicka2.20871191WAug 26 · 15:30V. Nohejl2.20681271P. Gireth1.61111110113LAug 19 · 17:08P. Gireth3.0019111172A. Barton1.36111187113WAug 19 · 16:30P. Gireth1.571111119113A. Barton2.2513761142LAug 19 · 15:00P. Gireth1.28119141172M. Zahradka3.50411168113
M. Jezek10
WSep 3 · 17:28M. Jezek2.20111011113J. Kanera1.61612461LSep 3 · 16:00J. Kanera1.57118119123M. Jezek2.25611911102WSep 3 · 15:00O. Svacha2.2511980M. Jezek1.571311113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Jezek1.33611119113V. Kolar3.2511481192WSep 2 · 17:00M. Jezek2.3811911113J. Ruzicka1.53611571LSep 2 · 16:30M. Jezek1.5311571662O. Svacha2.387111114113WSep 2 · 15:00M. Jezek1.91117612113J. Ruzicka1.80811111082LSep 2 · 14:00P. Gireth1.441111113M. Jezek2.638690WAug 26 · 17:00M. Jezek2.001111113V. Nohejl1.735770WAug 26 · 16:30M. Jezek2.1011111215113V. Nohejl1.67139141352
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