TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059557
Played Sep 2Finished
Pavel Gireth
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116118611117––
Jiri Ruzicka
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Gireth to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Gireth above · Jiri Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Pavel Gireth at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Gireth 7–5 Jiri Ruzicka Jiri Ruzicka has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:54What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Gireth
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Gireth
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gireth 1821 vs Ruzicka 1714
Gireth
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gireth 80% vs Ruzicka 40%
Gireth
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gireth 60% vs Ruzicka 40%
Gireth
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gireth +2 · Ruzicka -3
Ruzicka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Gireth) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gireth form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGireth 1.61 / Ruzicka 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Gireth)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059557
Gireth1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 30 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it79% 19 of 24
Ruzicka2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 149 of 367
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 226
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGireth6wins
AwayRuzicka4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGireth leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGireth80%4 of 5
AwayRuzicka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gireth5Ruzicka5n = 10split evenly
S2Gireth7Ruzicka3n = 10Gireth took 7 of 10
S3Gireth6Ruzicka4n = 10Gireth took 6 of 10
S4Gireth3Ruzicka4n = 7Ruzicka took 4 of 7
S5Gireth2Ruzicka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGirethRuzickaG − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.338.8+0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGirethRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 201 vs 676 / 139553.7%48.5%108 / 201 vs 676 / 1395Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GirethGireth 1.61/Ruzicka 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Gireth · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gireth won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 16:00P. Gireth—11118113J. Ruzicka—871191
LFeb 20 · 18:00P. Gireth—1111118102J. Ruzicka—651311123
WFeb 20 · 15:30P. Gireth—311119113J. Ruzicka—11971152
WFeb 12 · 17:30P. Gireth—116511113J. Ruzicka—61111982
WOct 2 · 16:00P. Gireth—121493J. Ruzicka—101280
WJul 10 · 15:30P. Gireth—1111113J. Ruzicka—8830
WJun 26 · 16:30P. Gireth—41113143J. Ruzicka—11511121
LJun 13 · 16:30P. Gireth—7611121J. Ruzicka—11117143
LJun 3 · 16:00P. Gireth—48130J. Ruzicka—1111153
LMay 29 · 17:00P. Gireth—61111942J. Ruzicka—119811113
P. Gireth10
WSep 2 · 17:30P. Gireth1.30912119153O. Svacha2.951110611132WSep 2 · 15:30O. Svacha3.258850P. Gireth1.331111113WSep 2 · 14:00P. Gireth1.441111113M. Jezek2.638690LAug 26 · 17:30P. Gireth1.576750J. Ruzicka2.201111113WAug 26 · 16:00P. Gireth1.6111118113J. Ruzicka2.20871191WAug 26 · 15:30V. Nohejl2.20681271P. Gireth1.61111110113WAug 26 · 14:00P. Gireth1.44111111113M. Jezek2.63913981LAug 19 · 17:08P. Gireth3.0019111172A. Barton1.36111187113WAug 19 · 16:30P. Gireth1.571111119113A. Barton2.2513761142LAug 19 · 15:00P. Gireth1.28119141172M. Zahradka3.50411168113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 3 · 12:59E. Mares1.4471311952J. Ruzicka2.631111711113LSep 3 · 12:30M. Huk1.8312119113J. Ruzicka1.831071191LSep 3 · 11:30J. Ruzicka2.7561113092E. Mares1.401191111113LSep 3 · 10:30M. Zahradka1.6191111113J. Ruzicka2.20116361WSep 3 · 08:59M. Klimenta1.809860J. Ruzicka1.911111113LSep 3 · 08:30M. Klimenta1.80991111133J. Ruzicka1.91111193112LSep 3 · 07:30J. Ruzicka2.105480M. Zahradka1.671111113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Huk1.801171011113J. Ruzicka1.9161112772WAug 26 · 17:30P. Gireth1.576750J. Ruzicka2.201111113LAug 26 · 16:00P. Gireth1.6111118113J. Ruzicka2.20871191
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