TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451190
Played Aug 18Finished
Jan Marhol
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611511116811––
Michael Hasman
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichael Hasman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Marhol above · Michael Hasman below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Michael Hasman at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jan Marhol 1–1 Michael Hasman Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:54What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Marhol
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Marhol 1509 vs Hasman 1496
Marhol
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marhol 80% vs Hasman 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marhol 70% vs Hasman 90%
Hasman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marhol +1 · Hasman +4
Hasman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Marhol) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hasman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarhol 1.67 / Hasman 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Marhol)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451190
Marhol1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 38 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Hasman2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog51% won 26 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMarhol1wins
AwayHasman1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMarholHasmanM − HBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.540.0−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarholHasmanBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 225 vs 74 / 13251.6%56.1%116 / 225 vs 74 / 132Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarholMarhol 1.67/Hasman 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Marhol · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hasman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 18 · 09:00J. Marhol—111195113M. Hasman—65111182
LAug 18 · 07:00J. Marhol—651181M. Hasman—11116113
J. Marhol10
WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113LAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132WAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113LAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870WAug 25 · 11:30J. Marhol1.671311812113O. Plyska2.10117111432LAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol1.5791111462J. Hanacek2.25118511113
M. Hasman10
WSep 9 · 05:15M. Hasman1.501113113A. Dvoracek2.5061170LAug 18 · 09:00M. Hasman1.6765111182J. Marhol2.10111195113WAug 18 · 08:00M. Vorel1.616560M. Hasman2.201111113WAug 18 · 05:30K. Jirousek1.5058121162M. Hasman2.501111107113WAug 11 · 13:03J. Jnr1.5713740M. Hasman2.251511113WAug 11 · 11:30M. Hasman1.8013912113J. Hanacek1.9111111061WAug 11 · 10:30M. Hasman1.7311611113J. Blazek2.00911861LAug 11 · 09:30M. Hasman2.00581181J. Jnr1.7311118113WAug 5 · 08:39D. Sabuka2.383590M. Hasman1.531111113WAug 5 · 07:30M. Hasman1.50111311113D. Sabuka2.50515641
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