TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12449940
Played Aug 18Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911119119––
Frantisek Pusch
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Frantisek Pusch below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Richard Wagner at 56.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 5–2 Frantisek Pusch Frantisek Pusch has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:05What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Wagner
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1668 vs Pusch 1691
Pusch
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 40% vs Pusch 100%
Pusch
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Pusch 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -1 · Pusch +5
Pusch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Wagner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pusch form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.53 / Pusch 2.38
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Wagner)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12449940
Wagner1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 39 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it72% 31 of 43
Pusch2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 32 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back39% 15 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeWagner5wins
AwayPusch2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderWagner leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner83.3%5 of 6
AwayPuschn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner6Pusch1n = 7Wagner took 6 of 7
S2Wagner2Pusch5n = 7Pusch took 5 of 7
S3Wagner6Pusch1n = 7Wagner took 6 of 7
S4Wagner3Pusch1n = 4Wagner took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricWagnerPuschW − PBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match36.628.1+8.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerPuschBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 136 vs 56 / 11050%50.9%68 / 136 vs 56 / 110Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.53/Pusch 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 18 · 11:30R. Wagner—11911113F. Pusch—711991
LAug 17 · 10:00R. Wagner—1310100F. Pusch—1512123
WAug 17 · 09:30R. Wagner—11311113F. Pusch—811381
WAug 17 · 06:30R. Wagner—1111113F. Pusch—7650
WJul 11 · 17:30R. Wagner—1111113F. Pusch—2170
WJul 11 · 15:30R. Wagner—11511113F. Pusch—311921
LJul 11 · 11:30R. Wagner—11411692F. Pusch—411211113
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151
F. Pusch10
WAug 18 · 17:30F. Pusch1.781111153M. Sychra1.8648130WAug 18 · 16:30R. Wagner1.445970F. Pusch2.631111113WAug 18 · 15:30F. Pusch1.831111113S. Kasnik1.836750WAug 18 · 14:30M. Sychra1.737640F. Pusch2.001111113LAug 18 · 13:30R. Wagner1.5011911113F. Pusch2.50911981WAug 18 · 12:00F. Pusch2.251211113M. Sychra1.5710570WAug 18 · 10:00F. Pusch1.53811811113V. Cermak2.3811611282WAug 17 · 13:30F. Pusch1.67117116113V. Cermak2.1091171112WAug 17 · 12:30F. Pusch1.831511113V. Cermak1.8313780WAug 17 · 11:00F. Pusch1.731311113T. Holik2.0011670
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