TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12449923
Played Aug 18Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911711––––
Frantisek Pusch
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:51 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Frantisek Pusch below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Richard Wagner at 56.8%
54 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 6–2 Frantisek Pusch Frantisek Pusch has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:51What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Wagner
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1706 vs Pusch 1695
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Pusch 80%
Pusch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Pusch 80%
Pusch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -1 · Pusch +3
Pusch
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pusch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.44 / Pusch 2.63
Signal prob.62% / 39%
Edge (Wagner)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12449923
Wagner1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 39 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it72% 31 of 43
Pusch2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog52% won 32 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back39% 15 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeWagner6wins
AwayPusch2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderWagner leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner85.7%6 of 7
AwayPuschn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner7Pusch1n = 8Wagner took 7 of 8
S2Wagner2Pusch6n = 8Pusch took 6 of 8
S3Wagner7Pusch1n = 8Wagner took 7 of 8
S4Wagner4Pusch1n = 5Wagner took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricWagnerPuschW − PBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match37.229.2+8.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerPuschBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 140 vs 59 / 11450.7%51.8%71 / 140 vs 59 / 114Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.44/Pusch 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.5%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pusch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 18 · 13:30R. Wagner—11911113F. Pusch—911981
WAug 18 · 11:30R. Wagner—11911113F. Pusch—711991
LAug 17 · 10:00R. Wagner—1310100F. Pusch—1512123
WAug 17 · 09:30R. Wagner—11311113F. Pusch—811381
WAug 17 · 06:30R. Wagner—1111113F. Pusch—7650
WJul 11 · 17:30R. Wagner—1111113F. Pusch—2170
WJul 11 · 15:30R. Wagner—11511113F. Pusch—311921
LJul 11 · 11:30R. Wagner—11411692F. Pusch—411211113
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151
F. Pusch10
WAug 18 · 17:30F. Pusch1.781111153M. Sychra1.8648130WAug 18 · 15:30F. Pusch1.831111113S. Kasnik1.836750WAug 18 · 14:30M. Sychra1.737640F. Pusch2.001111113LAug 18 · 13:30R. Wagner1.5011911113F. Pusch2.50911981WAug 18 · 12:00F. Pusch2.251211113M. Sychra1.5710570LAug 18 · 11:30R. Wagner1.5311911113F. Pusch2.38711991WAug 18 · 10:00F. Pusch1.53811811113V. Cermak2.3811611282WAug 17 · 13:30F. Pusch1.67117116113V. Cermak2.1091171112WAug 17 · 12:30F. Pusch1.831511113V. Cermak1.8313780WAug 17 · 11:00F. Pusch1.731311113T. Holik2.0011670
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