TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12435640
Played Aug 15Finished
Roman Pomin
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111171188111311
Oleg Varlamov
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeOleg Varlamov to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Pomin above · Oleg Varlamov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 99 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Oleg Varlamov at 57.2%
99 points played in total.
H2H Roman Pomin 5–8 Oleg Varlamov Roman Pomin has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:05What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Varlamov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Varlamov
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pomin 1564 vs Varlamov 1502
Pomin
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pomin 40% vs Varlamov 20%
Pomin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pomin 40% vs Varlamov 20%
Pomin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pomin +2 · Varlamov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Varlamov) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPomin 1.83 / Varlamov 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Varlamov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12435640
Pomin1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Varlamov1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePomin4wins
AwayVarlamov6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePomin66.7%2 of 3
AwayVarlamov71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pomin3Varlamov7n = 10Varlamov took 7 of 10
S2Pomin5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S3Pomin5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S4Pomin1Varlamov6n = 7Varlamov took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPominVarlamovP − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.5−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPominVarlamovBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 157 vs 266 / 55554.8%47.9%86 / 157 vs 266 / 555Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarlamovPomin 1.83/Varlamov 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Varlamov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 13:10R. Pomin51811118133O. Varlamov48117811112
LMar 7 · 12:40R. Pomin32691161O. Varlamov4211119113
WJan 24 · 14:10R. Pomin3712114103O. Varlamov361091161
WDec 20 · 14:10R. Pomin484111111113O. Varlamov4611691372
LJun 29 · 07:35R. Pomin35127881O. Varlamov43101111113
LMay 7 · 13:10R. Pomin33791161O. Varlamov3611113113
WApr 16 · 15:10R. Pomin331111113O. Varlamov227780
LApr 9 · 15:38R. Pomin229580O. Varlamov331111113
LApr 2 · 15:40R. Pomin2712870O. Varlamov361411113
LMar 30 · 05:30R. Pomin34712691O. Varlamov43111011113
R. Pomin10
LAug 15 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.384101111123R. Pomin1.53111289102WAug 15 · 15:40R. Pomin1.61119911113Y. Holoborodko2.2091111682LAug 15 · 14:40R. Pomin1.507111091R. Sopivnyk2.5011812113WAug 15 · 11:10R. Pomin1.73111139113O. Blashkun2.0098111142WAug 13 · 16:40V. Merzlikin1.831171071R. Pomin1.8351112113LAug 13 · 15:40R. Pomin2.0011128872V. Maksuta1.736101111113LAug 13 · 14:40R. Pomin1.3611811792R. Sopivnyk3.00511511113LAug 13 · 13:10R. Pomin2.00147931A. Droshchynskyi1.73121111113WAug 13 · 11:10R. Pomin1.6711115113O. Blashkun2.10991191LAug 11 · 12:20R. Pomin2.205940O. Strutinskiy1.611111113
O. Varlamov10
LSep 13 · 11:00O. Varlamov3.0010430A. Droshchynskyi1.361211113LSep 13 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko1.441011711153O. Varlamov2.63128118142LSep 13 · 08:00O. Varlamov1.8068111182Y. Holoborodko1.91111186113LSep 13 · 07:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.61881612133O. Varlamov2.2011111410112WSep 13 · 05:30O. Varlamov1.91921112113A. Zozulia1.80111171062WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750
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