TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12435630
Played Aug 15Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41110121181191210
Roman Pomin
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:13 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeRoman Pomin to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Roman Pomin below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 98 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Roman Pomin at 60.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 3–3 Roman Pomin Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:13What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pomin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1578 vs Pomin 1564
Merzlikin
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 60% vs Pomin 80%
Pomin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 50% vs Pomin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -1 · Pomin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Pomin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pomin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.38 / Pomin 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Pomin)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12435630
Merzlikin2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 35 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Pomin1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 13 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMerzlikin3wins
AwayPomin3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPomin50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin2Pomin4n = 6Pomin took 4 of 6
S2Merzlikin3Pomin3n = 6split evenly
S3Merzlikin1Pomin5n = 6Pomin took 5 of 6
S4Merzlikin4Pomin1n = 5Merzlikin took 4 of 5
S5Merzlikin2Pomin1n = 3Merzlikin took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMerzlikinPominM − PBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match39.039.3−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinPominBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 641 vs 86 / 15743.7%54.8%280 / 641 vs 86 / 157Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PominMerzlikin 2.38/Pomin 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Pomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 15 · 16:40V. Merzlikin484101111123R. Pomin50111289102
LAug 13 · 16:40V. Merzlikin351171071R. Pomin3951112113
LFeb 22 · 10:30V. Merzlikin4221191192R. Pomin44112119113
WJan 10 · 06:30V. Merzlikin52911912113R. Pomin38115111012
WDec 6 · 14:10V. Merzlikin3811115113R. Pomin32891141
LOct 12 · 08:00V. Merzlikin199640R. Pomin331111113
V. Merzlikin10
WSep 19 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.0011611113O. Kuzyshyn1.73611851WSep 19 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.201960LSep 19 · 12:10V. Merzlikin3.754611111A. Droshchynskyi1.2511114133LSep 19 · 10:40V. Merzlikin1.834470A. Zozulia1.831111113LSep 17 · 16:40V. Merzlikin1.83115791V. Maksuta1.8391111113WSep 17 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.201111113Y. Holoborodko1.617880LSep 17 · 13:40V. Merzlikin4.00147331A. Droshchynskyi1.22121111113WSep 17 · 12:10V. Merzlikin2.6311911113I. Efimenko1.44911291WSep 17 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.251114113A. Zozulia1.5761290WSep 16 · 17:10V. Merzlikin1.53111110113D. Habrelyan2.38491241
R. Pomin10
WAug 15 · 15:40R. Pomin1.61119911113Y. Holoborodko2.2091111682LAug 15 · 14:40R. Pomin1.507111091R. Sopivnyk2.5011812113WAug 15 · 13:10R. Pomin1.83811118133O. Varlamov1.83117811112WAug 15 · 11:10R. Pomin1.73111139113O. Blashkun2.0098111142WAug 13 · 16:40V. Merzlikin1.831171071R. Pomin1.8351112113LAug 13 · 15:40R. Pomin2.0011128872V. Maksuta1.736101111113LAug 13 · 14:40R. Pomin1.3611811792R. Sopivnyk3.00511511113LAug 13 · 13:10R. Pomin2.00147931A. Droshchynskyi1.73121111113WAug 13 · 11:10R. Pomin1.6711115113O. Blashkun2.10991191LAug 11 · 12:20R. Pomin2.205940O. Strutinskiy1.611111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.