TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13154971
Played Sep 19Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116611118115––
Oleh Kuzyshyn
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Kuzyshyn to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Oleh Kuzyshyn below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Oleh Kuzyshyn at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 38–35 Oleh Kuzyshyn Oleh Kuzyshyn has won 35 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kuzyshyn
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-35 in 73
Merzlikin
Correct
gap of 3 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1585 vs Kuzyshyn 1654
Kuzyshyn
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Kuzyshyn 100%
Kuzyshyn
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 60% vs Kuzyshyn 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Kuzyshyn +5
Kuzyshyn
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kuzyshyn) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzyshyn form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.00 / Kuzyshyn 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kuzyshyn)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13154971
Merzlikin2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 38 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Kuzyshyn1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 57 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it78% 45 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin4wins
AwayKuzyshyn6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKuzyshyn leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin33.3%2 of 6
AwayKuzyshyn50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin6Kuzyshyn4n = 10Merzlikin took 6 of 10
S2Merzlikin5Kuzyshyn5n = 10split evenly
S3Merzlikin3Kuzyshyn7n = 10Kuzyshyn took 7 of 10
S4Merzlikin4Kuzyshyn4n = 8split evenly
S5Merzlikin1Kuzyshyn2n = 3Kuzyshyn took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinKuzyshynM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.140.0−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinKuzyshynBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 607 vs 232 / 44245%52.5%273 / 607 vs 232 / 442Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzyshynMerzlikin 2.00/Kuzyshyn 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Kuzyshyn · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 15:10V. Merzlikin4181111113O. Kuzyshyn28115661
LAug 27 · 10:40V. Merzlikin36119881O. Kuzyshyn3961111113
WAug 22 · 13:40V. Merzlikin4061112113O. Kuzyshyn371171091
WAug 19 · 16:40V. Merzlikin331111113O. Kuzyshyn238780
LAug 12 · 14:40V. Merzlikin26811431O. Kuzyshyn4011711113
WMar 29 · 06:30V. Merzlikin521112711113O. Kuzyshyn5081411892
LMar 28 · 17:40V. Merzlikin2768130O. Kuzyshyn371111153
LMar 22 · 08:00V. Merzlikin49111110892O. Kuzyshyn52991211113
LMar 21 · 15:40V. Merzlikin31117941O. Kuzyshyn4181111113
LMar 15 · 07:35V. Merzlikin4614861172O. Kuzyshyn531211118113
V. Merzlikin10
WSep 19 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.201960LSep 19 · 12:10V. Merzlikin3.754611111A. Droshchynskyi1.2511114133LSep 19 · 10:40V. Merzlikin1.834470A. Zozulia1.831111113LSep 17 · 16:40V. Merzlikin1.83115791V. Maksuta1.8391111113WSep 17 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.201111113Y. Holoborodko1.617880LSep 17 · 13:40V. Merzlikin4.00147331A. Droshchynskyi1.22121111113WSep 17 · 12:10V. Merzlikin2.6311911113I. Efimenko1.44911291WSep 17 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.251114113A. Zozulia1.5761290WSep 16 · 17:10V. Merzlikin1.53111110113D. Habrelyan2.38491241WSep 16 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.73115661V. Merzlikin2.0081111113
O. Kuzyshyn10
WSep 19 · 15:40O. Kuzyshyn1.571211113Y. Holoborodko2.2510680WSep 19 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.571111103A. Zozulia2.256590WSep 19 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.80111187113M. Tiutiunnyk1.9185111172WSep 19 · 11:10O. Kuzyshyn1.83111113113A. Droshchynskyi1.83861551WSep 16 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn2.251171210113Y. Skorobahatyi1.57411101272LSep 16 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.73115661V. Merzlikin2.0081111113LSep 16 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn1.501151331Y. Holoborodko2.50131111113WSep 16 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.731113611113A. Zozulia2.00411111352LSep 16 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.40109111162D. Habrelyan2.75121168113WSep 10 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.838970O. Kuzyshyn1.831111113
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