TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155566
Played Sep 19Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
111119116––––
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 23–14 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Maksym Tiutiunnyk has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:10What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Merzlikin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-14 in 37
Merzlikin
Correct
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1526 vs Tiutiunnyk 1643
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 20% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 50% vs Tiutiunnyk 70%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -3 · Tiutiunnyk +1
Merzlikin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Merzlikin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merzlikin form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.61 / Tiutiunnyk 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Merzlikin)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13155566
Merzlikin1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 18 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Tiutiunnyk2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 35 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin7wins
AwayTiutiunnyk3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin80%4 of 5
AwayTiutiunnyk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin5Tiutiunnyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Merzlikin7Tiutiunnyk3n = 10Merzlikin took 7 of 10
S3Merzlikin6Tiutiunnyk4n = 10Merzlikin took 6 of 10
S4Merzlikin3Tiutiunnyk3n = 6split evenly
S5Merzlikin3Tiutiunnyk1n = 4Merzlikin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinTiutiunnykM − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.035.5+4.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 606 vs 192 / 38944.9%49.4%272 / 606 vs 192 / 389Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.61/Tiutiunnyk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 13:10V. Merzlikin33116971M. Tiutiunnyk4291111113
LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin50101281192M. Tiutiunnyk491210115113
WAug 5 · 13:10V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk178540
LJun 20 · 13:10V. Merzlikin218760M. Tiutiunnyk331111113
WMar 29 · 09:30V. Merzlikin361311123M. Tiutiunnyk25114100
WMar 28 · 14:40V. Merzlikin549131110113M. Tiutiunnyk44111141262
WMar 11 · 11:40V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk205960
WFeb 19 · 14:10V. Merzlikin50911811113M. Tiutiunnyk4711911792
WFeb 18 · 14:10V. Merzlikin4112711113M. Tiutiunnyk391011991
WDec 31 · 06:05V. Merzlikin49911117113M. Tiutiunnyk3911381162
V. Merzlikin10
LSep 19 · 12:10V. Merzlikin3.754611111A. Droshchynskyi1.2511114133LSep 19 · 10:40V. Merzlikin1.834470A. Zozulia1.831111113LSep 17 · 16:40V. Merzlikin1.83115791V. Maksuta1.8391111113WSep 17 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.201111113Y. Holoborodko1.617880LSep 17 · 13:40V. Merzlikin4.00147331A. Droshchynskyi1.22121111113WSep 17 · 12:10V. Merzlikin2.6311911113I. Efimenko1.44911291WSep 17 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.251114113A. Zozulia1.5761290WSep 16 · 17:10V. Merzlikin1.53111110113D. Habrelyan2.38491241WSep 16 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.73115661V. Merzlikin2.0081111113LSep 16 · 14:10V. Merzlikin2.0091040A. Zozulia1.731112113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 19 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk4.00981111113A. Droshchynskyi1.2211115482LSep 19 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.80111187113M. Tiutiunnyk1.9185111172LSep 19 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.7381111952Y. Holoborodko2.00119711113WSep 13 · 09:30M. Tiutiunnyk1.611113113A. Zozulia2.2011180LSep 13 · 08:30M. Tiutiunnyk3.509970A. Droshchynskyi1.281111113WSep 13 · 07:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.61881612133O. Varlamov2.2011111410112WSep 13 · 05:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.8011911113Y. Holoborodko1.91611931WSep 12 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk3.2511146113V. Maksuta1.339121191WSep 12 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi2.5011791172M. Tiutiunnyk1.50811114113WSep 12 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.8010111012113Y. Holoborodko1.91127121082
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