TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415466
Played Aug 13Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1157111012711––
Roman Pomin
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Roman Pomin below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 2–3 Roman Pomin Valerii Merzlikin has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:25What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1511 vs Pomin 1579
Pomin
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Pomin 20%
Merzlikin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 30% vs Pomin 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -1 · Pomin -3
Pomin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Pomin) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pomin form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.83 / Pomin 1.83
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Pomin)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12415466
Merzlikin1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Pomin1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMerzlikin2wins
AwayPomin3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderPomin leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPomin66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin2Pomin3n = 5Pomin took 3 of 5
S2Merzlikin3Pomin2n = 5Merzlikin took 3 of 5
S3Merzlikin0Pomin5n = 5Pomin took 5 of 5
S4Merzlikin3Pomin1n = 4Merzlikin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMerzlikinPominM − PBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.237.20.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinPominBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 636 vs 83 / 15243.4%54.6%276 / 636 vs 83 / 152Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PominMerzlikin 1.83/Pomin 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Pomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 13 · 16:40V. Merzlikin351171071R. Pomin3951112113
LFeb 22 · 10:30V. Merzlikin4221191192R. Pomin44112119113
WJan 10 · 06:30V. Merzlikin52911912113R. Pomin38115111012
WDec 6 · 14:10V. Merzlikin3811115113R. Pomin32891141
LOct 12 · 08:00V. Merzlikin199640R. Pomin331111113
V. Merzlikin10
WSep 19 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.0011611113O. Kuzyshyn1.73611851WSep 19 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.201960LSep 19 · 12:10V. Merzlikin3.754611111A. Droshchynskyi1.2511114133LSep 19 · 10:40V. Merzlikin1.834470A. Zozulia1.831111113LSep 17 · 16:40V. Merzlikin1.83115791V. Maksuta1.8391111113WSep 17 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.201111113Y. Holoborodko1.617880LSep 17 · 13:40V. Merzlikin4.00147331A. Droshchynskyi1.22121111113WSep 17 · 12:10V. Merzlikin2.6311911113I. Efimenko1.44911291WSep 17 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.251114113A. Zozulia1.5761290WSep 16 · 17:10V. Merzlikin1.53111110113D. Habrelyan2.38491241
R. Pomin10
LAug 15 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.384101111123R. Pomin1.53111289102WAug 15 · 15:40R. Pomin1.61119911113Y. Holoborodko2.2091111682LAug 15 · 14:40R. Pomin1.507111091R. Sopivnyk2.5011812113WAug 15 · 13:10R. Pomin1.83811118133O. Varlamov1.83117811112WAug 15 · 11:10R. Pomin1.73111139113O. Blashkun2.0098111142LAug 13 · 15:40R. Pomin2.0011128872V. Maksuta1.736101111113LAug 13 · 14:40R. Pomin1.3611811792R. Sopivnyk3.00511511113LAug 13 · 13:10R. Pomin2.00147931A. Droshchynskyi1.73121111113WAug 13 · 11:10R. Pomin1.6711115113O. Blashkun2.10991191LAug 11 · 12:20R. Pomin2.205940O. Strutinskiy1.611111113
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