TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121785
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleg Varlamov
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012411311––––
Andrii Droshchynskyi
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Varlamov above · Andrii Droshchynskyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 51 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 72.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Varlamov 5–9 Andrii Droshchynskyi Oleg Varlamov has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Droshchynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Droshchynskyi
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varlamov 1566 vs Droshchynskyi 1718
Droshchynskyi
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varlamov 40% vs Droshchynskyi 60%
Droshchynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varlamov 40% vs Droshchynskyi 60%
Droshchynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varlamov -3 · Droshchynskyi +2
Varlamov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Droshchynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Droshchynskyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarlamov 3.00 / Droshchynskyi 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13121785
Varlamov3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 61 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back32% 22 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Droshchynskyi1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 70 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it91% 48 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it75% 56 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarlamov3wins
AwayDroshchynskyi7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDroshchynskyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarlamov66.7%2 of 3
AwayDroshchynskyi85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varlamov3Droshchynskyi7n = 10Droshchynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Varlamov5Droshchynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Varlamov2Droshchynskyi8n = 10Droshchynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Varlamov3Droshchynskyi4n = 7Droshchynskyi took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarlamovDroshchynskyiV − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.439.9−4.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarlamovDroshchynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 542 vs 122 / 21247.4%57.6%257 / 542 vs 122 / 212Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiVarlamov 3.00/Droshchynskyi 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Droshchynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 08:00O. Varlamov274111111A. Droshchynskyi4011511133
LAug 29 · 13:10O. Varlamov32119391A. Droshchynskyi3851111113
LAug 23 · 07:30O. Varlamov506111111112A. Droshchynskyi50111376133
LAug 22 · 17:10O. Varlamov219570A. Droshchynskyi331111113
LAug 8 · 13:40O. Varlamov2651470A. Droshchynskyi381116113
WJul 25 · 13:40O. Varlamov4111118113A. Droshchynskyi34591191
LJul 11 · 15:40O. Varlamov37712991A. Droshchynskyi43111011113
WJul 5 · 05:30O. Varlamov4591411113A. Droshchynskyi371112771
LJun 25 · 14:10O. Varlamov2311750A. Droshchynskyi351311113
WJun 21 · 05:30O. Varlamov521111116133A. Droshchynskyi51791311112
O. Varlamov10
LSep 13 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko1.441011711153O. Varlamov2.63128118142LSep 13 · 08:00O. Varlamov1.8068111182Y. Holoborodko1.91111186113LSep 13 · 07:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.61881612133O. Varlamov2.2011111410112WSep 13 · 05:30O. Varlamov1.91921112113A. Zozulia1.80111171062WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361
A. Droshchynskyi10
WSep 13 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko2.636760A. Droshchynskyi1.441111113WSep 13 · 08:30M. Tiutiunnyk3.509970A. Droshchynskyi1.281111113LSep 13 · 06:30A. Zozulia2.1031211113A. Droshchynskyi1.671110771LSep 13 · 04:30Y. Bondarenko1.83111017113A. Droshchynskyi1.837121531WSep 12 · 17:40A. Droshchynskyi1.5011118113Y. Holoborodko2.50941171WSep 12 · 15:40V. Merzlikin3.409540A. Droshchynskyi1.30111153LSep 12 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.73119911113A. Droshchynskyi2.0061111982WSep 12 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi2.751111113V. Maksuta1.404490WSep 12 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk3.258280A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113WSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111
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