TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12349661
Played Aug 2Finished
Piotr Maruszak
Home
1.46
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7116111210118911
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
2.55
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Maruszak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
7116111210118911
H2H Piotr Maruszak 8–6 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:23What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (64%)
Maruszak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Maruszak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maruszak 1382 vs Mugowski 1361
Maruszak
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maruszak 40% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maruszak 40% vs Mugowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maruszak -1 · Mugowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Maruszak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maruszak form (40%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaruszak 1.46 / Mugowski 2.55
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Maruszak)-4.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #12349661
Maruszak1.46
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 27 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Mugowski2.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 252 of 614
Down 0–1, comes back24% 91 of 377
Down 0–2, comes back10% 21 of 208
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaruszak5wins
AwayMugowski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaruszak100%4 of 4
AwayMugowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maruszak4Mugowski6n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S2Maruszak5Mugowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Maruszak7Mugowski3n = 10Maruszak took 7 of 10
S4Maruszak3Mugowski4n = 7Mugowski took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaruszakMugowskiMaruszak − MugowskiBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.637.1−0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaruszakMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 526 vs 1010 / 218847.7%46.2%251 / 526 vs 1010 / 2188Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaruszakMaruszak 1.46/Mugowski 2.55
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.1%
Maruszak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 11:20P. Maruszak3811511113A. Mugowski31611861
LAug 2 · 06:50P. Maruszak4576121192A. Mugowski511111108113
LJan 11 · 05:15P. Maruszak34611891A. Mugowski4011711113
WJan 10 · 08:35P. Maruszak331111113A. Mugowski268990
LJan 2 · 05:55P. Maruszak2261060A. Mugowski341112113
WDec 20 · 09:45P. Maruszak4111811113A. Mugowski33911671
WOct 16 · 17:45P. Maruszak48411118143A. Mugowski50118811122
WAug 24 · 12:45P. Maruszak341111123A. Mugowski2486100
LAug 24 · 08:45P. Maruszak391011991A. Mugowski4012611113
LApr 12 · 19:45P. Maruszak32751191A. Mugowski4211119113
P. Maruszak10
WSep 13 · 05:35P. Maruszak1.7311811113T. Piotrowski1.92311891LSep 13 · 04:00P. Maruszak2.02811116112J. Glanowski1.65117511133WSep 13 · 03:00P. Maruszak1.571111123M. Piecowski2.1785100WSep 12 · 14:20J. Przewlocki2.461115861P. Maruszak1.4451711113WSep 12 · 13:30J. Glanowski1.7711511992P. Maruszak1.93511411113LSep 12 · 11:25J. Rolak2.7511811163P. Maruszak1.404117141WSep 12 · 10:35K. Marchlewski3.257712101P. Maruszak1.26111110123WSep 12 · 09:00I. Dabrowski1.861161271P. Maruszak1.8071114113LSep 12 · 07:40D. Solilo1.541111113P. Maruszak2.258930LSep 12 · 06:50K. Rudomina1.8511911113P. Maruszak1.85911481
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770
Upcoming Matches
P. Maruszak
Sep 13 · 06:50P. Maruszak1.83I. Dabrowski1.81—Sep 13 · 08:30P. Maruszak2.40D. Solilo1.46—Sep 13 · 09:20P. Maruszak2.80M. Kolek1.34—Sep 13 · 10:05P. Maruszak1.71T. Piotrowski2.00—Sep 13 · 11:20P. Maruszak1.57M. Piecowski2.17—Sep 13 · 12:35P. Maruszak1.94G. Kesik1.71—Sep 13 · 13:50P. Maruszak—D. Solilo——
A. Mugowski
Nothing scheduled
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