TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12333736
Played Jul 31Finished
Vasily Verbyany
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411311119117117
Vadym Hryban
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:36 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeVadym Hryban to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Vadym Hryban below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 85 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Vadym Hryban at 67.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 33–59 Vadym Hryban Vasily Verbyany has won 33 of their 92 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:36What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hryban
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-59 in 92
Hryban
Wrong
gap of 26 in 92, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1899 vs Hryban 1910
Hryban
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 60% vs Hryban 40%
Verbyany
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 40% vs Hryban 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany -1 · Hryban -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Hryban)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hryban form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 2.75 / Hryban 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Hryban)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12333736
Verbyany2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 108 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back20% 32 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 87
Hryban1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 259 of 406
Up 2–0, closes it95% 136 of 143
Up 1–0, closes it78% 188 of 240
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany4wins
AwayHryban6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHryban leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany75%3 of 4
AwayHryban83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany4Hryban6n = 10Hryban took 6 of 10
S2Verbyany5Hryban5n = 10split evenly
S3Verbyany3Hryban7n = 10Hryban took 7 of 10
S4Verbyany6Hryban1n = 7Verbyany took 6 of 7
S5Verbyany1Hryban3n = 4Hryban took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyHrybanV − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.639.8−0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyHrybanBasisWin rate · lifetime312 / 764 vs 322 / 51840.8%62.2%312 / 764 vs 322 / 518Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrybanVerbyany 2.75/Hryban 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Hryban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 18:25V. Verbyany—1311911143V. Hryban—155119122
LJul 28 · 07:25V. Verbyany—4580V. Hryban—1111113
LJul 27 · 16:54V. Verbyany—711101172V. Hryban—116129113
WJul 27 · 15:55V. Verbyany—13119113V. Hryban—1141171
WJul 23 · 13:55V. Verbyany—11711123V. Hryban—9118101
LJul 21 · 10:05V. Verbyany—981111102V. Hryban—111187123
WJul 20 · 19:05V. Verbyany—1111113V. Hryban—3890
LJul 17 · 04:55V. Verbyany—11111211102V. Hryban—513148123
LJul 16 · 14:55V. Verbyany—911681V. Hryban—11611113
LJun 26 · 04:25V. Verbyany—5680V. Hryban—1111113
V. Verbyany10
LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580WSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113LSep 4 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.7311481172D. Zeniuk2.00311119113LSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440
V. Hryban10
LJul 31 · 11:25B. Kohut2.631111113V. Hryban1.447760WJul 31 · 09:55V. Hryban1.80411128123N. Danyliuk1.911181011102WJul 31 · 07:55A. Molochko2.503550V. Hryban1.501111113LJul 31 · 04:55A. Zeniuk3.00781111113V. Hryban1.3611113682LJul 30 · 18:25V. Verbyany3.001311911143V. Hryban1.36155119122WJul 30 · 17:25A. Molochko2.5011126682V. Hryban1.508101111113LJul 30 · 15:55A. Zeniuk3.2561111143V. Hryban1.331195121WJul 30 · 13:55N. Danyliuk1.914790V. Hryban1.801111113LJul 30 · 11:55B. Kohut2.751111105113V. Hryban1.4066121182LJul 28 · 08:55B. Kohut2.75118116123V. Hryban1.40911911102
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