TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12276781
Played Jul 22Finished
Josef Braun
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113115811711711
Jiri Vrablik
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:12 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJosef Braun above · Jiri Vrablik below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 85 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Josef Braun at 55.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Josef Braun 0–1 Jiri Vrablik Josef Braun has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:12What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Braun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Braun 1853 vs Vrablik 1762
Braun
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Braun 20% vs Vrablik 60%
Vrablik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Braun 40% vs Vrablik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Braun -2 · Vrablik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Braun) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrablik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBraun 1.67 / Vrablik 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Braun)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12276781
Braun1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 144 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it92% 84 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it74% 112 of 151
Vrablik2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 5 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back29% 2 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBraun0wins
AwayVrablik1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderVrablik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBraunVrablikB − VBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match46.048.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBraunVrablikBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 899 vs 24 / 5852.8%41.4%475 / 899 vs 24 / 58Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunBraun 1.67/Vrablik 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.8%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vrablik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 22 · 06:05J. Braun—911511102J. Vrablik—116118123
J. Braun10
LSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113LSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741LSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192WSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161WSep 6 · 03:45J. Braun2.0014911113S. Kolasa1.731211581
J. Vrablik10
LJul 22 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.441111113J. Vrablik2.635880LJul 22 · 12:05J. Vrablik4.001051121J. Folwarski1.2212116113WJul 22 · 10:25J. Vrablik2.1071111113K. Wloczko1.67119451WJul 22 · 09:40K. Kolodziej1.73811671J. Vrablik2.0011811113LJul 22 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.44101111113J. Vrablik2.63128561WJul 22 · 07:20J. Vrablik2.10951111123K. Wloczko1.67111174102WJul 22 · 06:05J. Braun1.67911511102J. Vrablik2.10116118123LJul 22 · 04:55K. Wisniewski2.631111113J. Vrablik1.446890LJul 22 · 03:25K. Glazowski2.381251112113J. Vrablik1.53101171472LJul 21 · 14:15J. Vrablik2.159780G. Poliniewicz1.601111113
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