TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12276713
Played Jul 22Finished
Jiri Vrablik
Home
4.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012511116211––
Jakub Folwarski
Away
1.22
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:02 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Vrablik above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 68 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Jakub Folwarski at 76.6%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Vrablik 0–1 Jakub Folwarski Jiri Vrablik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:02What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vrablik 1762 vs Folwarski 2106
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 344 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrablik 80% vs Folwarski 40%
Vrablik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrablik 60% vs Folwarski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrablik +2 · Folwarski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Folwarski) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (40%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrablik 4.00 / Folwarski 1.22
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Folwarski)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12276713
Vrablik4.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 5 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back29% 2 of 7
Folwarski1.22
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite76% won 151 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it99% 65 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it88% 94 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVrablik0wins
AwayFolwarski1wins
Folwarski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricVrablikFolwarskiV − FBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match28.040.0−12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrablikFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime24 / 58 vs 266 / 36241.4%73.5%24 / 58 vs 266 / 362Avg sets wonper match1.72.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiVrablik 4.00/Folwarski 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.6%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 22 · 12:05J. Vrablik—1051121J. Folwarski—12116113
J. Vrablik10
LJul 22 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.441111113J. Vrablik2.635880WJul 22 · 12:55J. Braun1.6711118772J. Vrablik2.10351111113WJul 22 · 10:25J. Vrablik2.1071111113K. Wloczko1.67119451WJul 22 · 09:40K. Kolodziej1.73811671J. Vrablik2.0011811113LJul 22 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.44101111113J. Vrablik2.63128561WJul 22 · 07:20J. Vrablik2.10951111123K. Wloczko1.67111174102WJul 22 · 06:05J. Braun1.67911511102J. Vrablik2.10116118123LJul 22 · 04:55K. Wisniewski2.631111113J. Vrablik1.446890LJul 22 · 03:25K. Glazowski2.381251112113J. Vrablik1.53101171472LJul 21 · 14:15J. Vrablik2.159780G. Poliniewicz1.601111113
J. Folwarski10
WSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113WAug 13 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.201111113K. Kolodziej4.338790LAug 13 · 12:30J. Folwarski1.3313711862M. Benes3.251111211113WAug 13 · 11:15J. Folwarski1.6171111113G. Felkel2.20118791WAug 13 · 10:00A. Abbasi2.637870J. Folwarski1.441111113WAug 13 · 09:20J. Folwarski1.301111113J. Braun3.405540WAug 13 · 08:40J. Folwarski1.141211113A. Daniel5.0010730WAug 13 · 07:15J. Folwarski1.441014119123M. Jadczyk2.631212711102LAug 13 · 06:10J. Folwarski1.449181131A. Abbasi2.6311205113WAug 13 · 04:05J. Folwarski1.221211113M. Domin4.0010560
Upcoming Matches
J. Vrablik
Nothing scheduled
J. Folwarski1 of 8 neutral
Sep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.57J. Kosowski2.25—Sep 7 · 12:55J. Folwarski1.61P. David2.20—Sep 7 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.33S. Kolasa3.25—Sep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski—M. Olejnik——Sep 8 · 04:10J. Folwarski—J. Kosowski——Sep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski—P. David——Sep 8 · 06:30J. Folwarski—A. Wiecek——Sep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski—T. Spanik——
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